Colorado Markets (Colorado Springs, Denver, Boulder, Greely, Summit County, etc)

Colorado Markets (Colorado Springs, Denver, Boulder, Greely, Summit County, etc)

Investor · Louisville, CO · Member since 2014 · 26 posts · 6 votes

Howdy BP -

I'm a new investor looking to get into my first buy & hold property in the next six months. I am working to select the "best" market within a few hours drive of Boulder CO. I've had more luck meeting the 1% & 50% rules in areas like Greely, Colorado Springs, Aurora, etc. But these areas are much less attractive as appreciation prospects.

I've been graphing out Zillow market data by zip code(http://www.zillow.com/research/data/); specifically Price to Rent ratios. I am trying to strike a balance between a market that can deliver month-to-month cashflow (after debt service) while enjoying some level of appreciation. Historically it looks like appreciation in the Colorado Springs market has been flat, while most Northern Colorado markets have enjoyed ~6% growth. I'm  picking up on an inverse relationship between rent/price ratios that would beet the 1%-2% rules, and a markets likelihood for growth. It seems like the higher end markets that show resilient growth have lower rent/price ratios. Thus it is more difficult to find cash flowing properties.

Since I am a new investor and want to build a conservative foundation, cash flow is my utmost priority. Ideally, I would like to net $100 - $200 per door. With Boulder's recent approval to expand the Google campus, this would be an ideal market for appreciation, but it is tough from a cash flow perspective.

Long story short, I am looking for some advice on a balanced market in CO that offers both attractive cash flow and shows historic appreciation. Thank you in advance for your help!

My very best,

Jeff

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Investor · Tampa, CO · Member since 2009 · 52 posts · 21 votes
11y

I don't want to say the party is over, but I'm not finding many deals at this time in my neck of Northern CO.  I recently closed on an estate house, making a fast full offer on the 1st day it hit the market.  Had the attorney waited a couple of days to accept offers I'm sure the estate would have gotten better offers than mine.  Sometimes cash really is king.  Some times luck is on my side.   I only offer $ on what I can make money on.  

I'm glad I have a secondary market to invest in, where there are deals and the weather is warm!   For me, it's cold in Colorado......in more ways than one!

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  • Anson YoungBusiness Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 726 votes
    11y

    Guys like @Mark Ferguson invest up in Greeley/Loveland and guys like @Michael Wentzel I believe has some Aurora and Lakewood holdings as well.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    11y

    I don't have anything on the west side, though I have looked at a lot of properties there.  Even during the bust these were too expensive.  I do have property in Aurora and Montbello.  Wish I had 20 over there instead of just two.

    Appreciation is a guessing game, pure and simple.  Do all the analysis you want, but in the end its just a guess.   IDK where you would find good rentals here and now that will produce any cash flow.  I wish I did.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    It is tough in Greeley too. Prices are up and its hard to find 1 % properties anymore. 

  • Investor · Tampa, CO · Member since 2009 · 52 posts · 21 votes
    11y

    I don't want to say the party is over, but I'm not finding many deals at this time in my neck of Northern CO.  I recently closed on an estate house, making a fast full offer on the 1st day it hit the market.  Had the attorney waited a couple of days to accept offers I'm sure the estate would have gotten better offers than mine.  Sometimes cash really is king.  Some times luck is on my side.   I only offer $ on what I can make money on.  

    I'm glad I have a secondary market to invest in, where there are deals and the weather is warm!   For me, it's cold in Colorado......in more ways than one!

  • Rental Property Investor · York, PA · Member since 2013 · 101 posts · 30 votes
    11y

    I agree with Jon that buying for appreciation in a guessing game.  I'd worry even more about areas you've researched that have shown 6% gains for several years.  That can only last so long and you could be buying at the top.  I've researched the heck out of places to see what direction the town is heading.  Bottom line is that no matter what the city plans, proposed developments, or past returns show, none of that can predict the future.

    The only way to get a 1% property these days is to market directly to sellers, go to really bad areas, or get lucky.  

  • Investor · Louisville, CO · Member since 2014 · 26 posts · 6 votes
    11y

    Thank you all for the fantastic (and timely) feedback.

    Really appreciate the references @Anson Young Hope to connect soon at one of the Denver Meetups

    I echo your sentiments on appreciation @Jon Holdman . I'm keeping cash flow my utmost priority.

    @Mark Ferguson While it's getting tougher, It looks like Greely is one area where 1%ers still may exist. Have you pulled back the reigns, or shifted your focus to other markets?

    @James Bell Congrats on the all cash Estate deal. What is your secondary market if you don't mind me asking?

    @Darren Smith I'm thinking off-market may be the way to go if I want to stay in my own back yard. Excellent point on the caution of historical growth trends.

  • Investor · Tampa, CO · Member since 2009 · 52 posts · 21 votes
    11y

    @Jeff Lucas   Tucson AZ.

  • Bill S.Pro Member
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    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Jeff L. I can tell you from observation that if you go for cash flow in the Denver market all you end up with is junk in the 'hood. A friend of mine went to a guru seminar a few years ago and was always crunching the numbers. Now he is selling because the tenants have wore him out. He had a number of ugly evictions and trashed units as he ramped up the learning curve on figuring out how to deal with people from that walk of life. 

    It is also clear that many investors are not taking the advise of Bigger Pockets here in metro area. People ARE buying on the hope of appreciation and rent growth and they may not be wrong. So Cal enjoyed 20 plus years of positive growth so it's at least plausible that there many years of good times ahead. 

    I would also point out that cash flow is not the end all. I know people that have seen cash flow evaporate when government (taxes) and service (insurance) costs increase rapidly while the tenant pool deteriorates (falling rents). Keep in mind the bottom of the tenant pool is the most volatile. When things get bad these folks stop moving and once you hit a vacancy you can't lower the price enough to cause them to move.  During these times vacancies eat up your cash flow. It's my opinion that expecting rents (cash flow) to remain the same or grow is only slightly more conservative than expecting property values to remain the same or grow.

    Just some food for thought.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Jeff L.:

    Thank you all for the fantastic (and timely) feedback.

    Really appreciate the references @Anson Young Hope to connect soon at one of the Denver Meetups

    I echo your sentiments on appreciation @Jon Holdman . I'm keeping cash flow my utmost priority.

    @Mark Ferguson While it's getting tougher, It looks like Greely is one area where 1%ers still may exist. Have you pulled back the reigns, or shifted your focus to other markets?

    @James Bell Congrats on the all cash Estate deal. What is your secondary market if you don't mind me asking?

    @Darren Smith I'm thinking off-market may be the way to go if I want to stay in my own back yard. Excellent point on the caution of historical growth trends.

    I am still looking for deals here, but they are hard to find. I want to be in the 1.2 to 1.3% range and I have seen one in the last four months. Prices are up 30% in the last two years and it is tough to find anything under $200,000 now.  

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Golden, CO · Member since 2013 · 590 posts · 319 votes
    11y
    Mark Ferguson I get listings from Greeley almost daily with houses hitting the market at 100k-120k. Maybe it's the areas where you don't invest?
  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Kyle Doney:

    Mark Ferguson I get listings from Greeley almost daily with houses hitting the market at 100k-120k. Maybe it's the areas where you don't invest?

     Most likely. That would be the very bottom of the market. Even at the very bottom there isn't much under 120k. 

  • Investor · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2013 · 643 posts · 280 votes
    11y

    @Jeff L. I am relatively new to this game. I had two rentals in Colorado Springs and I now have 5 in Pueblo. I really like Pueblo for cash flow. The purchase prices are half what they are here in the Springs, but the rent rates are only 10 or 20 percent lower. The low purchase prices in Pueblo have also allowed me to learn and make mistakes with smaller numbers. 

    As far as appreciation, I'm with most of the others. Investing for appreciation is like gambling. Build a portfolio where there is cash flow and any appreciation will be icing on the cake. Pueblo is probably the last place you would want to look for appreciation if you look at historical prices.

    Mike

  • Investor · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2015 · 1 post · 0 votes
    11y

    Hi Mike and All,

    I saw earlier mention about local portfolio lenders. My profile includes contact info. I am looking to refi some of my rentals and am looking for some new banks to work with.

  • Investor · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2015 · 66 posts · 50 votes
    11y

    @Kris G.

    Try First Bank his name is Kyle Wilson 719-638-4106 or 719-573-5000

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