Cost burden of appreciation

[Marc Zak]

In the market where I live (San Diego), appreciation has been strong and many predict it will continue to appreciate in the long term.

However, with current interest rates (6% at best) and property tax (2%), the annual cost burden is 8%.

Am I correct in saying that appreciation has to be above 8% annually (plus whatever my maintenance and vacancy costs are) for me to make any money in this scenario if the property is cash flow neutral? This seems unlikely in the long run.