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Updated about 1 year ago, 10/27/2023

User Stats

168
Posts
268
Votes
George Pauley
  • Chandler, AZ
268
Votes |
168
Posts

ROI increases as amount down increases? Where is my analysis flawed?

George Pauley
  • Chandler, AZ
Posted

Hi gang,

Been away for awhile.  Retired about 3 years ago and have been living the dream on my passive real estate income.  :)

I recently sat down with a friend to help them analyze their first SFH rental investment. During the analysis I came up with the surprising result that the Cash-On-Cash ROI got better the more money we put into the investment. This result goes against everything I have ever heard (or believed) about real estate investing.

Here's the deal.  (It's not a good deal, but all the deals are bad these days.)

Price:  $153,000
Mortgage Rate:  8%
Rent:  $1195
Fixed Expenses (management, repairs, tax, insurance, etc.):  $468/mo

Here is my spreadsheet. I am calculating CoC ROI as (yearly net / down payment). I've checked many of these numbers by hand, and had my wife build her own spreadsheet to double check. She came up with the same results. So I don't think there is a math error.

What am I missing in my analysis?  

I'm sure I'm having a senior moment and am doing something dumb.  I look forward to having you all 'splain how dumb I'm being.  (Thanks in advance.)


%Down Down Mort Cash Flow CoC ROI
0.00% $0 $1,122.66 -$395.26 *
5.00% $7,650 $1,066.53 -$339.13 -53.2%
10.00% $15,300 $1,010.39 -$282.99 -22.2%
15.00% $22,950 $954.26 -$226.86 -11.9%
20.00% $30,600 $898.13 -$170.73 -6.7%
25.00% $38,250 $841.99 -$114.59 -3.6%
30.00% $45,900 $785.86 -$58.46 -1.5%
35.00% $53,550 $729.73 -$2.33 -0.1%
40.00% $61,200 $673.60 $53.80 1.1%
45.00% $68,850 $617.46 $109.94 1.9%
50.00% $76,500 $561.33 $166.07 2.6%
55.00% $84,150 $505.20 $222.20 3.2%
60.00% $91,800 $449.06 $278.34 3.6%
65.00% $99,450 $392.93 $334.47 4.0%
70.00% $107,100 $336.80 $390.60 4.4%
75.00% $114,750 $280.66 $446.74 4.7%
80.00% $122,400 $224.53 $502.87 4.9%
85.00% $130,050 $168.40 $559.00 5.2%
90.00% $137,700 $112.27 $615.13 5.4%
95.00% $145,350 $56.13 $671.27 5.5%
100.00% $153,000 $0.00 $727.40 5.7%

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