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All Forum Posts by: George Pauley

George Pauley has started 4 posts and replied 164 times.

Post: From Cali to Memphis were gonna make it happen.

George PauleyPosted
  • Chandler, AZ
  • Posts 168
  • Votes 268

Thank you @Raj Khadilkar and @Mike Mosee.  I'm looking for a new PM and am perusing the BP forums looking for feedback on Mid-South.  Nice to see 2 endorsements, especially from long term customers.

@Keenan Patton, welcome to Memphis investing!  I've been invested in the Memphis area for 8 years now and love the area.  Memphis properties are my best (cash-flow) performing properties.

Quote from @Austin Laramee:

I have been noticing a bell curve of COCROI where the more cash flow we have, the more skewed left it is, and the less cash flow we have the more skewed right it is. Ill post my equations from DESMOS once I hone in some more variables.

I was actually expecting a bell curve, that's why I ran all the possible down payments.  Do post if you get that bell curve on a deal.  I suspect there'll be something to learn there.

It's funny how situations change.  5 years ago I would have been laughing too hard at this deal to tell the seller "NO!".  Today I'm retired and the idea of getting 6% on $150k AND depreciation AND rent and price appreciation AND having it in tangible property instead of dollars actually seems pretty attractive.  If my buddy doesn't take it, I just might.  :)

Thanks Immanuel!  I "knew" it had something to do with the higher interest rate, but the way you just stated it makes it so clear.  :)

Ugh... that spreadsheet was formatted much more nicely before I hit the Post button.  Sorry.

Hi gang,

Been away for awhile.  Retired about 3 years ago and have been living the dream on my passive real estate income.  :)

I recently sat down with a friend to help them analyze their first SFH rental investment. During the analysis I came up with the surprising result that the Cash-On-Cash ROI got better the more money we put into the investment. This result goes against everything I have ever heard (or believed) about real estate investing.

Here's the deal.  (It's not a good deal, but all the deals are bad these days.)

Price:  $153,000
Mortgage Rate:  8%
Rent:  $1195
Fixed Expenses (management, repairs, tax, insurance, etc.):  $468/mo

Here is my spreadsheet. I am calculating CoC ROI as (yearly net / down payment). I've checked many of these numbers by hand, and had my wife build her own spreadsheet to double check. She came up with the same results. So I don't think there is a math error.

What am I missing in my analysis?  

I'm sure I'm having a senior moment and am doing something dumb.  I look forward to having you all 'splain how dumb I'm being.  (Thanks in advance.)


%Down Down Mort Cash Flow CoC ROI
0.00% $0 $1,122.66 -$395.26 *
5.00% $7,650 $1,066.53 -$339.13 -53.2%
10.00% $15,300 $1,010.39 -$282.99 -22.2%
15.00% $22,950 $954.26 -$226.86 -11.9%
20.00% $30,600 $898.13 -$170.73 -6.7%
25.00% $38,250 $841.99 -$114.59 -3.6%
30.00% $45,900 $785.86 -$58.46 -1.5%
35.00% $53,550 $729.73 -$2.33 -0.1%
40.00% $61,200 $673.60 $53.80 1.1%
45.00% $68,850 $617.46 $109.94 1.9%
50.00% $76,500 $561.33 $166.07 2.6%
55.00% $84,150 $505.20 $222.20 3.2%
60.00% $91,800 $449.06 $278.34 3.6%
65.00% $99,450 $392.93 $334.47 4.0%
70.00% $107,100 $336.80 $390.60 4.4%
75.00% $114,750 $280.66 $446.74 4.7%
80.00% $122,400 $224.53 $502.87 4.9%
85.00% $130,050 $168.40 $559.00 5.2%
90.00% $137,700 $112.27 $615.13 5.4%
95.00% $145,350 $56.13 $671.27 5.5%
100.00% $153,000 $0.00 $727.40 5.7%

Post: Duplex altercation involving police

George PauleyPosted
  • Chandler, AZ
  • Posts 168
  • Votes 268

I like sending the letter to all tenants because it gives the appearance of even-handedness.  But further, it lets the complaining tenant know that you are taking action.

Post: The world through the eyes of a Newbie

George PauleyPosted
  • Chandler, AZ
  • Posts 168
  • Votes 268

I tell potential investors to accept that they WILL make mistake$.  (Spelled with a $ on purpose...)  So many people are afraid to make the first deal because the investment amounts are usually significant (at least to new investors) and they know that they are still novices.  I tell them to get the best deal they can with the knowledge they currently have, and to accept that they will end up regretting some aspects of the deal.  Treat each mistake or regret as a le$$on learned.  Really not a lot different than paying tuition at college.  But making that first deal, and paying for those lessons is how they move from novice to seasoned investor status.  The next investment will better, and the one after that better still.  

(Within reason, if you, as a novice, know the best deal you can currently get is a bad deal, then it almost certainly is a bad deal, and you shouldn't take it.) 

As @Kenneth Garrett mentioned previously, the "standard" advice is to hold back 6 months worth of operating expenses in reserve.

I would add that most of us, as we acquire more doors, feel that 6 months is too much.  It's the "acquire more doors" part that is key here.  As you get more doors you begin to notice that "problem$$$" usually only occur on one or two properties at a time.  And that very often the income from the other properties covers the cost of the issues on the few problematic ones.

I deal with a a fair number of property managers, and they will generally estimate 3-5% of rent as being needed for maintenance.  This number is WAY to low (for most of us).  The way these PMs come up with that number is by cost averaging maintenance costs over the hundreds (sometimes thousands) of properties they manage.  I've tried to explain why standard deviation is an important consideration in this calculation but, as you might imagine, it ends up being too mathy for most PMs and they tune out.  :D  The problem is that of their hundreds of homes they manage, the average cost is 3-5%, but some poor owner is stuck buying a new AC each month. 

But the cost averaging principal still applies.  As you get more homes, you will find that you don't need to hold back quite as much.

So how much do you hold back?  Ultimately it's a personal decision.  It does seem to me that there is an upper limit.  Questions like:  What is my insurance deductable?  What is the longest period my PM has needed to rent a unit?  What is the largest repair expense my PM has seen?  Those types of questions would likely help you find a reasonable upper limit on how much you should reserve.

I would love to a large PM share their data with a mathematician, and probably a professional poker player :), and see if they could come up with some guidelines.