MORNING POST: Is the market tarting to come down?

Question

Been hearing a lot of perspectives on this topic. I believe that the market won't go down in my opinion because there are jobs starting to accommodate with the rise of prices that's happening right now. Hect Mcdonalds made an adjustment of paying $15 per hour (in Atlanta). I think as jobs start to pay more to help fellow employees to afford living in this market. We may never see the market come back down that we will all like it at. What are your thoughts on today's market?

Jay Hinrichs · Answer

I there is downward pressure for sure its starting with distressed assets and wholesalers.. I am getting reports from my teams and e mails on the very few wholesaler e mails I get noticed on where they are lower their prices and or deals are not closing and just expiring and my teams are then putting in back up offers behind the wholesalers and getting better deals as a result . Not every deal of course but enough of them to see softening in that asset class. in new builds your seeing builders offer closing credits financing credits and some price reductions ( I have not personally had to yet) but I remain vigilante to see if I need to do this to keep my projects moving along . 2008 style meltdown I agree with you.. I mean take ATL as a prime example I had loans there in 07 houses ( nice ones) that had full apprasials that were for 130 to 140k and i loaned on a few 80 to 90K on them.. Hard money loans buyers defaulted because tenants did not pay or lending dried up and they could not refi and I had to take them back.. And even with them rented bringing in 700 to 800 a month with NO INVESTOR LOANS they could only be sold for cash I remember best I could get for one of them was 40k that was a 50k loss on that one property and that was happening by the thousands in the atlanta metro area.. LOT values crashed 90% or more.. I looked at fully developed lots ( pipe farms) in Henry county that I could buy for 1k a lot.. tried to raise a fund to buy them but investors pushed back ( It does not cash flow) I did manage to buy 14 lots for 3k a peice in a nice development of 250 to 350k homes . held them a little over two years and exited at 30k per lot that was a 10X but that was then and now is now .. so agree some softening no utter meltdown like what happened then.

Eric Bilderback · Answer

Yes prices are coming down in my area and inventory is building up a little. However I believe the market is calculating that interest rate will come down and probably more stimulus etc. housing is still very unaffordable for working people in my area and would need a crash in my area to resolve that. But most of the players I speak with believe that when push comes to shove the market will be propped back up.

Penny Brown · Answer

Atlanta is still warm...just not blazing hot anymore. But a long way from cooling. Steady rents, good jobs, and good schools make this a good bet for the long term.

Eliott Elias · Answer

Market is definitely slowing down, i'm not confident there will be a crash though.

Carlos Ptriawan · Answer

Starting from the last two weeks, inventory has been reduced a little bit week by week as the new listing has almost no growth. Refinance activity started increasing a little bit. That was an early sign that the bottom is near. But it also means 30% of real estate pros may have to find a different job.

Karl B. · Answer

Retail mortgage rates have doubled the past 6 months and the rise in wages is less than the rate of inflation. I'm seeing more inventory yet the prices are still silly high. As inventory builds prices will drop; the only exception are cities who have low inventory, which is certainly to be the exception VS most cities.

Carlos Ptriawan · Answer

new listing in July drops 8-9% YoY in many markets while closed sales dropped 26%. Vegas sales dropped 36% and CA metro dropped like 40-45%.So the inventory is a result of the seller that can't find a buyer and may have to reduce the price. I found many areas have very unique price charts. Some cities in bay area still not experiencing any drops but the downtown area /cheaper area felt the price reductions. Meanwhile, another state is showing 'hey there's no price reduction here'.It's extremely local to the neighborhood level.

Steven Foster Wilson · Answer

The market is definitely not as hot as it used to be although I do not think prices will ever go back to what they once were. When I hear from my sellers that they bought a multi-family property for $5,000-$8,000, that is just crazy.