Track Record Pre-2018 vs New Normal- Syndicator Vetting

[John Blanton]

There are some Syndicators who have been on the sidelines for sometime waiting for a 'Correction' or at least relief on current Cap rates. Of course within any investment thesis there must be many 'assumptions' made about future values, economics, etc.

If someone has a successful track record before 2019, but has not bought in this new low interest, hyper Cap rate compression market...is it fair to rely on their past track record to justify future success?

How much credence should you give someone who bought on the upswing (2011-2019) vs buying in the current market environment?

It appears low interest rates are going to be here to stay for quite some time some assumptions must be even more aggressive than 2018-today.

Just making sure I am comparing apples to apples...