Texas - Potential first short sale ? Is this a deal?

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3/2/2 in nice neighborhood.
Owner wants to sell fast and move, not keep the property
Owner is only 30 days behind and owes about 135K, including taxes
county appraisal is about 145K or so
comps in area run about 155K (need more comps however)
owner has indicated he intends to file chap 7

My analysis:
since owner needs to move, loan mod is not an option
not enough equity for a wholesale deal
short sale might be workable in a few more weeks when owners is 60 days behind.
My offer price to the bank would be around 118K, depending on the BPO

If owners does file chap 7 before being 60 days behind, then that puts off a short sale until the owner comes out of bankruptcy doesn't it? So then, how would I then get an opportunity to do a short sale via the owner, before the bank gets it? Or maybe just let the bank take it, then make an offer to the bank. However, then we are just simply taking about buying REO and Im sure there are deals out there, but its my opinion that the best deals are had when dealing direct with the home owners and not with banks and REO's.

comments and opinions welcomed please.

[Nick J.]

Originally posted by Randal D:

Owner is only 30 days behind and owes about 135K, including taxes

have you verified that? remember sellers lie

Originally posted by Randal D:

county appraisal is about 145K or so

that doesn't mean anything. I only use that to help with lowering or justifying my low offer price, outside of that I don't think it represents anything close to it's value.

Originally posted by Randal D:

comps in area run about 155K (need more comps however)

instead of seeing what's being sold retail, check to see what's been foreclosing in the immediate area and I'll bet you that you'll find that the comps don't come near that amount.

Originally posted by Randal D:

owner has indicated he intends to file chap 7

not good for you.

Originally posted by Randal D:

short sale might be workable in a few more weeks when owners is 60 days behind.

not true, you can short a mortgage that is current.The whole 'it must be delinquent to short sale is preached by amateurs fresh from a weekend seminar

Originally posted by Randal D:

My offer price to the bank would be around 118K, depending on the BPO

why so high? what formula are you using to calculate that price

Originally posted by Randal D:

If owners does file chap 7 before being 60 days behind, then that puts off a short sale until the owner comes out of bankruptcy doesn't it? So then, how would I then get an opportunity to do a short sale via the owner, before the bank gets it? Or maybe just let the bank take it, then make an offer to the bank. However, then we are just simply taking about buying REO and Im sure there are deals out there, but its my opinion that the best deals are had when dealing direct with the home owners and not with banks and REO's.



comments and opinions welcomed please.

If the seller files BK, you can still work the short sale but you can't buy/sell it until it's been discharged. Typically I say it's not worth your time, especially your numbers b/c I have no idea where you think you'll make money on the deal.

Find out if the seller is filing BK b/c of the house and see if you shorted the house would that keep him from BK, if so then go ahead with it, if not, walk.