Family dollar shopping center

[Michael Sura]

Hello BP community,

I have an interesting deal in front of me 25 miles north of a Major city in the Carolinas. It is a 40,000 sq ft shopping center that has a vacant food lion(recenetly moved out grocery store), a family dollar, chinese food place, papa johns, nail salon and a H&R block. It is fully leased except for the grocery that recently moved out. My plan is to convert the grocery store into smaller suites and lease it all as a typical shopping center effectively chopping the grocery store into smaller sections. My biggest fear is the family dollar moving out when there lease ends in 16 months. There is a stand alone Dollar General right next door. The traffic count is 15,000 cars per day. What research would you do to see if the family dollar is planning to stay? I called the location and the store clerk said there was an "okay" amount of traffic through the store and was currently checking someone out when i called. I am purchasing the place at a discount so that is also to be considered. Estimated day time population is 4500 within a one mile radius and 50,000 withen a 5 mile radius. What do yall think?

[Don Konipol]

@Michael Sura

Supermarket was an “anchor” tenant driving in traffic and enabling the other tenants to experience more walk in trade. Even if you’re successful attracting small tenants to the divided space there won’t be an anchor tenant draw, and your rental rates will be severely discounted. With online shopping, Amazon Prime delivery, etc., there is a continuing decline in demand for retail space. The price you believe is a discount purchase price may not be that at all. It’s estimated that the value of a retail property with 75% vacancy and no anchor tenant possibility is half or less than a fully occupied center.