Where are we in the CRE cycle?

[Victor Saumarez]

I'm new to commercial real estate and am looking to see if it offers any opportunities in the current market, which I am assuming to be somewhat over-bought. Can anyone tell me what is the most reliable price index used? Which sectors are the least volatile? How much does geography play a role. Even when assuming the Offeror of say a syndicated investment is experienced, does the way leverage is used concern anyone? For example, what happens if a property can't be sold before principal payments kick in. Are the offerings adequately reserved or insured for that eventuality? I know they can change to LLC status in order to refinance etc, but how common and successful is that? What are key ratios benchmarks (debt to equity etc) for analyzing offerings? Where can I find default rates for DST-type offerings?