Advice on Lowball a property

[Le Jia]

Hello BP nation, I am really interested in a duplex in MD. The house needs some work. One side needs a lot of work and the other side is rented currently. I need your advice on how to lowball the offer and not offend the seller (knowing lowballing probably will offend the seller!!!)

Property asking price:190K 45 days on the market (initially asking for 250k)

2022 tax assessment:120K

Comparable: One property nearby sold 80K on 6/14/21. Similar condition. But all other properties sold in 2021 were range from 120-150k

After Repair Value: 175-200K

I am thinking lowballing at 60K, planning 35K for rehab and 5K reserve to keep it under 100K.

Exiting strategy: 

1) sell it once fixed up. Pack before tax profit 50-70K.

2) hold on to it, Both side can rent from 750-1000. Cash flowing from 300-500 per month for the entire unit assuming 11% management fee, 8% vacancy rate and 10% maintenance rate, 10% CapEx, 8% other miscellaneous items.

BUT, the key is it will ONLY work if the sell price is from 57K-80K!

This will be my first investment property offer after analyzed 40+ properties. 

Please share your experiences to offer lowball price and the outcome!

thanks guys.