Market Crash Signs, Now compared to 2009

Market Crash Signs, Now compared to 2009

Lender · Texas; Arizona · Member since 2019 · 276 posts · 282 votes

I find investors talking about the '07-'09 Real estate crash and I remember something very different. I read articles about why it happened and think, I don’t think that was the case at all. What did the crash look like to you?

Here’s what I experienced in Phoenix. What was odd was what buyers/sellers were saying at the time, compared to what the stats show now. We know inventory was at an all time high in 2007 and prices started to decline mid 2007. But in 2007, it was still difficult for a seller to find a property. We had a family move into our neighborhood and they said they had made multiple offers on houses but kept being beat out. They were so grateful to finally be able to buy a house. Early 2008 when we realized the market was really dropping, no one knew when the bottom was, so investors were buying properties, no one was waiting for the bottom because we thought in that moment it was the bottom. So if you had money you bought a house and thought you had just got the best deal of your life. In early 2008 a friend of mine was looking at new builds, couldn’t find one, he was getting beat out, even in a dropping market. Finally got one under contract, national home builder, after agreeing to put down 20k of earnest money, non refundable. 350k purchase price. He closed on it. Most of the hard money/private money dried up by the beginning of 2008. It wasn’t until the summer of 2008 I saw the fear of buying really start, most had lost money in stocks, no private money, no non-qm loans. Money to buy properties had dried up in about 6 months.

March 2008, I spoke with a Keller Williams agent about listing a flip, he would only list if I agreed to drop the price by 10k every two weeks it didn’t sell. At the trustee auction, March 2008 to about June 2008, 10-15 people at the Auction each day. 200-400 properties being foreclosed on each day.

Summer 2008 prices were still dropping, more investors started showing up at the Trustee auction, by the end of 2008, there where over 100 people at auction each day. 2009, It was common to see 500-800 properties foreclose a day. There was one day, on a Tuesday after the weekend and a Monday holiday, that had just over 2000 homes. That was the biggest day I saw. The cheapest prices at the trustee auction were Jan 2009-March 2009.

Even at the bottom, we thought it would still go lower, so there was a fear of buying. Even so, properties still sold in 2008 and 2009 on MLS. I had better returns per flip in 2008, then I did in 2009,'10, or '11.

What was your experience in your market? What are people saying now about the crash that you didn’t see?   What can we learn from it?

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Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
5y
Originally posted by @Andrew Bang:

I find investors talking about the '07-'09 Real estate crash and I remember something very different. I read articles about why it happened and think, I don’t think that was the case at all. What did the crash look like to you?

Here’s what I experienced in Phoenix. What was odd was what buyers/sellers were saying at the time, compared to what the stats show now. We know inventory was at an all time high in 2007 and prices started to decline mid 2007. But in 2007, it was still difficult for a seller to find a property. We had a family move into our neighborhood and they said they had made multiple offers on houses but kept being beat out. They were so grateful to finally be able to buy a house. Early 2008 when we realized the market was really dropping, no one knew when the bottom was, so investors were buying properties, no one was waiting for the bottom because we thought in that moment it was the bottom. So if you had money you bought a house and thought you had just got the best deal of your life. In early 2008 a friend of mine was looking at new builds, couldn’t find one, he was getting beat out, even in a dropping market. Finally got one under contract, national home builder, after agreeing to put down 20k of earnest money, non refundable. 350k purchase price. He closed on it. Most of the hard money/private money dried up by the beginning of 2008. It wasn’t until the summer of 2008 I saw the fear of buying really start, most had lost money in stocks, no private money, no non-qm loans. Money to buy properties had dried up in about 6 months.

March 2008, I spoke with a Keller Williams agent about listing a flip, he would only list if I agreed to drop the price by 10k every two weeks it didn’t sell. At the trustee auction, March 2008 to about June 2008, 10-15 people at the Auction each day. 200-400 properties being foreclosed on each day.

Summer 2008 prices were still dropping, more investors started showing up at the Trustee auction, by the end of 2008, there where over 100 people at auction each day. 2009, It was common to see 500-800 properties foreclose a day. There was one day, on a Tuesday after the weekend and a Monday holiday, that had just over 2000 homes. That was the biggest day I saw. The cheapest prices at the trustee auction were Jan 2009-March 2009.

Even at the bottom, we thought it would still go lower, so there was a fear of buying. Even so, properties still sold in 2008 and 2009 on MLS. I had better returns per flip in 2008, then I did in 2009,'10, or '11.

What was your experience in your market? What are people saying now about the crash that you didn’t see?   What can we learn from it?

All things old become new again. 

"This time things will be different". I went though the "Resolution Trust Corporation Bust" and I heard "This time will be different" for the DOT Com bust. Yep, it was different, but the results were the same. I went through the DOT Com bust and I heard "This time will be different" in 2008. Yep, it was different, but the results were the same. I went through the 2008 bust and I keep hearing "This time will be different" in 2021. Yep, it will be different, but the results will be the same.

So what do you expect, bad money policy keeps getting the same results. 

"Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results"

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  • Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    What it looked like to me was.....a LOT of foreclosures for sale.

  • Investor · Rochester, MI · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 584 votes
    5y

    Also looks like a lot of sub-prime buying too! Nothing like now, the last president made jobs! Didn’t give them away and now our economy is booming that’s why the housing market is crazy. 2008 was a financial disaster approving anyone with a pulse. 

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    5y
    speculation drove the market  fundamentals brought it back to earth.

    ERGO you see all the folks on BP spout the same thing..   CASH FLOW is everything  appreciation is gambling that was spawned by the gurus coming out of the GFC..

    now buyers are pretty much smarter if they buy an investment they want it to at least break even  not massive negative in most instances.. And home owners have to actually qualify.
    Part of the issue in PHX  LV  FLA  GA is new construction came to a complete halt you had hundreds if not 100K contractors or those in the trades with NO jobs.   And of course the mother of it all Capital froze How many 90k Escalades would sell if they could only be sold for cash ?  thats in a nut shell what happened in those years
  • Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 1 vote
    5y

    My experience was buying HUD properties for sale with cash, rehab, refi, and hold. Banks were glad to lend. They made money on points, sold loans to the market, and lent again. The higher the price, the bigger return in points. I saw people walking out of closing buying property with money in their pocket. Property was going for sale in Atlanta with California investment companies lending way too much money for property I would never live in. Then Europe bankers announced in 8 or 9/2008 that they were lending on overpriced property. It was musical chairs, the music stopped, and the market crashed. Real simple. Overpriced houses for points and the music stopped.

    Banks today want to sit on money for fear of a crash.  Low inventory, low interest rate, unavailability of money (unless you have spotless credit and an excellent appraisal).  When they decide to lend to the hungry market, the housing market will continue to grow. (My 2 cents)

  • Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Andrew Bang:

    I find investors talking about the '07-'09 Real estate crash and I remember something very different. I read articles about why it happened and think, I don’t think that was the case at all. What did the crash look like to you?

    Here’s what I experienced in Phoenix. What was odd was what buyers/sellers were saying at the time, compared to what the stats show now. We know inventory was at an all time high in 2007 and prices started to decline mid 2007. But in 2007, it was still difficult for a seller to find a property. We had a family move into our neighborhood and they said they had made multiple offers on houses but kept being beat out. They were so grateful to finally be able to buy a house. Early 2008 when we realized the market was really dropping, no one knew when the bottom was, so investors were buying properties, no one was waiting for the bottom because we thought in that moment it was the bottom. So if you had money you bought a house and thought you had just got the best deal of your life. In early 2008 a friend of mine was looking at new builds, couldn’t find one, he was getting beat out, even in a dropping market. Finally got one under contract, national home builder, after agreeing to put down 20k of earnest money, non refundable. 350k purchase price. He closed on it. Most of the hard money/private money dried up by the beginning of 2008. It wasn’t until the summer of 2008 I saw the fear of buying really start, most had lost money in stocks, no private money, no non-qm loans. Money to buy properties had dried up in about 6 months.

    March 2008, I spoke with a Keller Williams agent about listing a flip, he would only list if I agreed to drop the price by 10k every two weeks it didn’t sell. At the trustee auction, March 2008 to about June 2008, 10-15 people at the Auction each day. 200-400 properties being foreclosed on each day.

    Summer 2008 prices were still dropping, more investors started showing up at the Trustee auction, by the end of 2008, there where over 100 people at auction each day. 2009, It was common to see 500-800 properties foreclose a day. There was one day, on a Tuesday after the weekend and a Monday holiday, that had just over 2000 homes. That was the biggest day I saw. The cheapest prices at the trustee auction were Jan 2009-March 2009.

    Even at the bottom, we thought it would still go lower, so there was a fear of buying. Even so, properties still sold in 2008 and 2009 on MLS. I had better returns per flip in 2008, then I did in 2009,'10, or '11.

    What was your experience in your market? What are people saying now about the crash that you didn’t see?   What can we learn from it?

    All things old become new again. 

    "This time things will be different". I went though the "Resolution Trust Corporation Bust" and I heard "This time will be different" for the DOT Com bust. Yep, it was different, but the results were the same. I went through the DOT Com bust and I heard "This time will be different" in 2008. Yep, it was different, but the results were the same. I went through the 2008 bust and I keep hearing "This time will be different" in 2021. Yep, it will be different, but the results will be the same.

    So what do you expect, bad money policy keeps getting the same results. 

    "Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results"

  • Mesa, AZ · Member since 2018 · 24 posts · 9 votes
    5y

    @Arsen Atanasovski yes last time there were a lot more foreclosures, and this time is very different in that there is so much equity in peoples homes.  For a foreclosure to happen, someone needs to walk away, and no one will be walking away from all the equity in their house.  They may need to sell or explore other creative solutions, but not walk away from equity.  Here is the graph, courtesy of the St Louis Fed and the Board of Governors of the Fed.

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