Advice for buying vs. renting in my situation

[Evan Lieb]

*Mods, please let me know if this is the wrong forum* 

To summarize my situation; I’m getting a divorce and could move anywhere but I’d like to move myself into a better school district for my two kids. Their mom has always wanted to get them into a better district so we agree on this idea. I still live in the family house in Pasadena (I don’t have title to it) and want to move to South Pasadena about 7 miles away where the public schools are fantastic. We’d split time with the kids between those two cities.

Anyway, my options in South Pasadena for homes are $850-950k 3-bedroom condos or $1M-$1.3M 3-bedroom homes. My options for apartments there are $2,800-$3,800/month 3-bedroom homes. My hesitation for buying is based on how hot/overpriced I see the SoCal market is and potentially how long it would take to actually move in (need to do this by August for schools). I've hated the idea of renting since forever though, I'd much rather house hack via an ADU in the back or something, but unfortunately I just don't see that as possible given the options in that location plus need for great public schools.

Anyway, I’ve done the math and come to varying conclusions. For example, I could potentially be wealthier buying a home even after all the additional maintenance and closing costs of buying and selling it if I were to, say, sell it after 5 years and assumed a 5% annual appreciation, which is what this area yields. That assumes a lot of things, like actually *wanting* to move, the market recovering enough to actually sell for that higher price as I’m making an educated guess there will be a recession at some point in the next 5 years, etc. Then there’s the other scenario of renting, where all the money I would have spent on the downpayments and closing costs of buying and selling is instead plowed into an index fund which could very well yield 15% instead of 10% over the next 5 years. So lots of potential futures to consider.

Anyway, I wanted to ask people’s opinions on what I imagine is a scenario only divorcees with kids ever really think about but I would really appreciate any and all perspectives. Thank you!