State of the Real Estate Market 2019-2020

[Aseel Yerunkar]

Hi All,

So I had an idea to start an opinionated discussion of the state of the market as it stands today backed up with some facts that could help people who are starting out as well as help current investors gain a new perspective. The rising tides that were seen during the mid 2010s are long gone and we are nearing the peak of the economic cycle according to many economists. Prices are high and inflated (to a certain degree) in markets that were once recently seen as up-and coming territories. But seeing as we are a community of creative investors our mentality always searches for opportunity where no one else can usually see it. Deals are still out there to be found with the right kind of perspective and strategy. 

So, I wanted to know as it stands today, where are you having success with real estate investing? Where are you anticipating future potential to be in? And why? What strategy are you using to tackle the current market?

Currently, I have chosen Indianapolis as my home base. Price to rent ratios are still favorable, although a lot of "hype" neighborhoods have already gentrified there are still neighborhoods in the midst of a turn. The economy is diverse and composed of many different job sectors making it to a certain degree more "recession proof" than other markets. Commercial development is still on the rise and the city is making a real effort to provide better opportunities to its people through various projects and programs.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Originally posted by @Ned Carey:

@Aseel Yerunkar I see a very faint slowing at retail and strong sales at the investor level.

The signs are mixed but I think more positive than bad, so I expect the market to continue for another 2 years or so.

Before the last crash it was obvious to anyone  who was paying attention that a crash was coming. This time there is no clear signs of a crash coming. Until signs change, if a housing slowdown does come soon I suspect it will be much more modest. 

I missed the 07 to 2010 melt down memo personally  UGH.. but in hind sight yes easy to see that sub prime and liar loans was a recipe for disaster.. also the landlord business has really gotten better .. prior to 08 it was more hit and miss with the out of state investor not really understanding what it takes to run OOS rentals.. the TK operators have really shored up their systems and PM side of things.

our market in PDX I would say for retail has about peaked.. and buyers are now making lower offers than in the past.. but less inventory still creates consistent sales.. its just not like 3 years ago were you put a house on MLS on Friday and you were opening escrow on Monday with a full price contract..

WE have a 90 homes community we are going vertical on in Feb.. price points just above the median for our market  500k to 600k and we already have 12 people on our waiting list and this is just off of one sign on the project coming soon.. so we are enthused..

rates are still so incredibly good buyers are still able to get into the homes.

in about 2002 to 2004 when I was lending in the mid west half of the under 100k homes were being sold to home owners.. and the others to renters.. but that stopped dead in its tracks so now those homes that are still under 100k I bet 95% go to investors now.