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Updated over 5 years ago,
Long term investment prospects of New England?
What does everyone think the long term (>20 years) investment prospects are for New England? I have seen some things that concern me and want to get other opinions.
In terms of population and economies, it seems everything is moving south and west. Texas and the West Coast are growing at a rate that leaves New England in the dust. The main drivers seem to be the weather and low col compared to the East Coast.
Massachusetts' GDP in 2018 grew at half the rate of Texas, and 75% the rate of Colorado (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_economic_growth_rate). Rhode Island and Vermont grew far less. Furthermore, many economists predict a decrease in college enrollment in the next 7-10 years, which will disproportionately effect New England (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-30/college-enrollment-bust-is-headed-this-way-by-2026).
There are of course some promising signs. New Englands economy is extremely diversified, which means it has and will likely continue to fair better in a recession as opposed to other regions that focus exclusively on gambling or tourism or manufacturing. Many of our economies, like healthcare, will never go away. Plus, for short term investments, like value-adds and rehabs, there is more money (in straight dollars) to be made if you have the capital to do it. A 30% value add on a $600K house in Boston is more profit than a 30% value add on a $200K home in Oklahoma. The college slowdown is predicted to not effect elite colleges, of which New England has more than any other region. But while our 4 Ivies will be safe, as well as places like Northeastern, BU, Tufts, Wesleyan, and MIT, there's no denying that we also have a disproportionate share of colleges no one has ever heard of that will be hurt.
All of this together, should we fear investing long term in New England? Will the region 20 years from now be a relic of a past time, the same way that Ohio was one of the centers for economic activity in the 1900's? Or will it be in the same standing as most large cities are today, economic hubs where cash flow is sacrificed for safe and sturdy investments?
For now, I've considered continuing to pursue value adds in New England, where I can make a higher profit in pure dollars, and then investing that in these growing cities with cheaper costs, like Dallas. That said, I'm looking to owner occupy a triplex in NE, as well as hopefully pick up a couple other investment properties in the area where I can self manage it easily and get strong cash flow, and fear the long term prospects and implications of the region.