Where are we in the market cycle?
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Gotcha. Real estate is typically more local than national so it'd be better to focus on one's local market just as much as national averages. History shows that the median home prices will usually slow down in appreciation (like what is happening in SF and the Bay Area after years of wild appreciation) then flatten during an economic downturn rather than drop precipitously such as what occurred a decade ago. You'll usually see the DOM averages get a little higher and the months' supply go back to a more even level and possibly push into a buyer's market (6+ months' supply).
It's an inevitability that the market will change as there cannot be never-ending yearly gains in appreciation, increasing interest rates, and an increase in buyer activity. New home construction is already flattening and there are reports of builders having a harder time getting traffic through the door. We'll see what 2019 has to offer and I too believe we are nearing the top of the hill. All good things come to an end eventually, but either way, there is almost always money to be made in real estate. You just have to be smart to identify when the winds are changing and prepare and adjust accordingly.