Proposed Metro Rail Extension by my units - Time to sell?

Proposed Metro Rail Extension by my units - Time to sell?

Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes

Hey BP Gang!  Looking to hear your feedback on how the following issue may impact the value and rent premiums my property (duplex) demands.  Some of you who reside in so-cal may be familiar with this issue.

The Metro in my area is making a big push to extend their commuter rail lines.  I live one house away from a rail road crossing that is solely used by freight trains.  They come through once or twice during the afternoon.  Metro purchased the right of way and wants to add a commuter line.  They are trying to move forward without even informing residents (I only found out through word of mouth) as this is by far the cheapest option.  If this goes forward, I expect a commuter train would be coming through every ten minutes.  As I said, the RR crossing is ~100 feet away; a new station will be built ~0.4 miles away.

Initially this wasn't going to be started for many years, but I understand that LA Metro may try and push a start in 2018.  They are voting in January on whether to extend the rail line by my duplex or a half mile away along a busy street.

Thoughts / recommendations on exiting?

I plan to move out regardless next year so I'm not concerned about how this will affect my own quality of life, more concerned about how it will drive renter and buyer demand.  I know you all like numbers, so to put it in perspective: gross monthly rent for the duplex is ~4500, should be able to sell for 700 to 750k in current market.  Given the dollars I've invested in the property to date, I make about 15% of it back in profit annually already and would see an immediate six figure profit if I sold.

Thanks!

P

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Specialist · Riverside, CA · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
8y

It really depends on the area and your renter demographic in some places it is good to have a metro station near by as it will attract tenants who use it to get to work.  The higher priced the property probably the more it will negatively affect value, but as I mentioned before up to a point it may be a good thing.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Specialist · Riverside, CA · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y

    It really depends on the area and your renter demographic in some places it is good to have a metro station near by as it will attract tenants who use it to get to work.  The higher priced the property probably the more it will negatively affect value, but as I mentioned before up to a point it may be a good thing.

  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y

    Well, for one thing, when you sell you'll have to fill out a disclosure and will have to admit to knowing about this railroad. 

    Would I pay 700K for a duplex that brings in only $ 4500 per month? Not in a million years. So, I would rather look at selling and using those funds for something more profitable. 

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Michaela G.:

    Well, for one thing, when you sell you'll have to fill out a disclosure and will have to admit to knowing about this railroad. 

    Would I pay 700K for a duplex that brings in only $ 4500 per month? Not in a million years. So, I would rather look at selling and using those funds for something more profitable. 

    Yeah, that's southern California real estate in a nutshell!  We pay a quite a premium. As far as the disclosure I'm assuming you're looking at this from the perspective that fall under a neighborhood noise problem or nuisance?  (albeit one that does not exist yet)

  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Yeah, that's southern California real estate in a nutshell!  We pay a quite a premium. As far as the disclosure I'm assuming you're looking at this from the perspective that fall under a neighborhood noise problem or nuisance?  (albeit one that does not exist yet)

     I would think that you know something that can effect the property value and that if you don't disclose it and it happens and they're unhappy, that it could come back to bite you. 

    I'm not an attorney - just my thought

  • Jo-Ann LapinPro Member
    Loan Officer · Tustin, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 713 votes
    8y

    I think it great that everyone is giving you feedback here. Really the magic question is if you do sell what can replace this with? 

  • Contractor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y
    There will be programs for that, just like houses close to the airport, they have a quite building program that is being paid for by LAWA, I assume it will be the same, the probable issue will be the ground shakings / vibrations when rails pass. How about the chances with proximity? If the stop is close, then it could potentially be a plus. The issue you are facing is, the very reason why you want to sell it will be the very reason buyers don’t want to buy it.
  • Investor · Sewell, NJ · Member since 2016 · 68 posts · 48 votes
    8y
    In New Jersey the value would go up!!
  • Darren SagerPro Member
    Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    @Jeff Small with the changes coming to train towns in NJ all their values are going to go up.  

  • Patrick LiskaPro Member
    Investor · Verona, NJ · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 832 votes
    8y

    Patrick,

     no i am not talking to myself, it all depends, will they be building a station near the house or will the town just be a pass through ? that is something you need to find out, having a station will bring the value up.

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Patrick Liska:

    Patrick,

     no i am not talking to myself, it all depends, will they be building a station near the house or will the town just be a pass through ? that is something you need to find out, having a station will bring the value up.

     The station will be 0.4 miles away, but I live one house away from one of the crossings it will go through (100 ft or so away)

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Manolo D.:

    There will be programs for that, just like houses close to the airport, they have a quite building program that is being paid for by LAWA, I assume it will be the same, the probable issue will be the ground shakings / vibrations when rails pass. How about the chances with proximity? If the stop is close, then it could potentially be a plus. The issue you are facing is, the very reason why you want to sell it will be the very reason buyers don’t want to buy it.

     The nearest station will be 0.4 miles away but the train passes about 100 ft by my house.  I live close to a RR crossing.

    Agreed that is the issue I'm facing, thus evaluating whether to sell before this project becomes more "real"

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Jo-Ann Lapin:

    I think it great that everyone is giving you feedback here. Really the magic question is if you do sell what can replace this with? 

     Good question.  I wouldn't plan to replace right away via 1031.  I've lived here long enough to be exempt from capital gains.  When the time is right, I'd purchase another 2-4 unit property that is a fixer-upper.  Could be within a few months or as long as a few years away (depending on career developments, graduate school decisions, etc etc)

  • Patrick LiskaPro Member
    Investor · Verona, NJ · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 832 votes
    8y

    The crossing can be a minus but being that close to a station is gold, people can walk to the train from their front door, hold on to it. I think you will see the value rise once it all starts

  • Investor · Franklin, NJ · Member since 2017 · 27 posts · 26 votes
    8y

    While the noise may be a concern for tenants, I would think this would be a good opportunity to spruce up your rental and spin this as positive, considering that public transportation will now be within walking distance for prospective tenants who commute.

  • Boston, MA · Member since 2013 · 53 posts · 31 votes
    8y

    In Boston area, train extension will increase property values but we have a commuting population. Could you look at the last train extension or access around your area and see if the values of houses around that area increased?

  • China, ME · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8y

    @Account Closed I lived through this in my former town of Scituate MA.

    Those who directly abut the train tracks or live within a few hundred feet are much more severely effected.  I have not done an analysis, but I can tell you that I actively discourage buyers from homes in that kind of location.  As much for their own quality of life as for the resale value.

    I was about 1,000 feet from the tracks - and we had an agreement with the MBTA that they wouldn't blow the train horn on this part of the line.  Even 1,000 feet away, we could hear the low-frequency rumble with the windows closed.  With the windows open, it could wake you from a sound sleep.

    The MBTA did offer concessions to those along what used to be an abandoned rail bed.  Some got noise abatement and I think some got cash concessions.  Small consolation when the train that wasn't there when you bought your home now runs 50 feet from your bed.

    Of course, the "no horn" agreement will last as long as it takes the first drunken teenager to stagger onto the tracks and get himself killed.  Then the ear-splitting horn will be necessary "for the children".  (Don't you care about the children??)

    As you directly abut the tracks, I would advise selling post-haste.  Use a good agent to get a firm grasp on what you have to disclose.  If the new rail service is only being discussed, you may only have to disclose that much.

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y

    Interesting dialogue playing out here - one group of posters encourages holding out and another strongly recommends selling as quickly as possible.  Funny how this parallels studies that have been done on the impact of rail lines on property values: mixed results.  I should add that the line extension being proposed is close to a major freeway, so this development would only be beneficial to commuters relying on public transportation instead of car.

    @Aaron K. I would say the demographics lean towards working class

    @Von S. Good idea

    @Charlie MacPherson Thanks for your thorough response.  It sounds like you had quite a negative experience in this situation.  Do you base your advise to people to sell based solely on the situation with MBTA?  Or are you also aware of other developments around the country that have had a similar negative result for residents?

  • Specialist · Riverside, CA · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y

    If it is working class and most people commute into LA for work it will probably be a good thing and a selling point for tenants, if most of the tenants work nearby it probably will make little difference to the current value.

  • China, ME · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8y

    @Account Closed  Part of the negative experience is that the commuter rail was not there when we moved there in 1985.  It was a dry rail bed that people had used for hiking and biking for decades.  The previous train service was discontinued some time in the 1950s.

    There are a relatively few people who benefited from the commuter rail - those who worked in Government Center and the Financial District, and possibly a few who would get off along the way for a job in Quincy.

    Those very selfish few - and the politicians who wanted to curry favor with the labor unions who would build and operate the train - shoved the commuter rail down our throats.  Sort of a "hooray for me and to hell with you" movement - even with multiple protests and several votes of residents to defeat the new train.

    Not that it's especially relevant, but the stories of corruption on the build and management of the contract are legendary.  That was to be expected as there are always palms to grease.

    Those that lived next to, or even within a few hundred feet of the new commuter rail suffered major disruptions to their lives.  I was lucky - at almost 1,000 feet away, we weren't disrupted too badly, unless we wanted to sleep with the windows open.  A lot of people had it a lot worse that we did.

    So my advice to home buying clients is based on the noise, and if you're close to the terminal, the diesel smoke and shaking of your home's foundation.  

    I do think that having a train WITHOUT a horn blowing within about 800 feet is a real detriment to quality of life.  If there is a horn blowing at grade crossings, I'd expand that radius to at least 3,500 feet, preferably a mile.

    In our new home in Plymouth, the train is about 2 miles away and we can hear it very faintly in the distance.

    I have not studied any other markets, so I can't offer any useful commentary there.

    I base my sell it NOW advice on the fact that you abut the train tracks.  If you were a few thousand feet away and near a train station so renters could actually use it easily, I think it would somewhat enhance values.

  • Boston, MA · Member since 2013 · 53 posts · 31 votes
    8y

    Piggybacking on @Charlie MacPherson's comment, I think another way to analyze whether it's worth holding onto this property is to look at the demographics in your area. In Charlie's experience with the train extension in Scituate, he saw a decrease in home values. This makes sense to me in that I think the demographics in Scituate lean toward more established and older families looking for a peaceful living environment. In my experience, talks of train extension in Somerville (formerly referred to as "Slummerville")-- about a mile or so away from Boston proper, showed increases in price in the exact neighborhood the extension was being built. Further, more mixed-use condos went up in that area as well. My thinking here is that the demographic attracted to Somerville are younger professionals (DINKs or single person household) and they accept the noise as a given to having access to the train. Also, this demographic drive less as well.

    All this said, look around your neighborhood. Do you see older established families or so called millennials moving in? Who are your current renters now? Do you see mixed use condos being built or retirement homes or single family homes? This will give you a sense of the demographic trends and you can decide whether this will increase the demand for your property or not when the train comes in. Also, most city economic dept. break down demographics by neighborhood so you might want to check into this-- usually available on city's website.

  • China, ME · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8y

    @Von S. To be clear, I think the homes that were abutting or VERY close to the train tracks were impacted.

    The rest of the town, like all of eastern MA continued to ride the rising market.  

    The negative impacts were hyper-local - down to the street level.

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Charlie MacPherson:

    @Von S. To be clear, I think the homes that were abutting or VERY close to the train tracks were impacted.

    The rest of the town, like all of eastern MA continued to ride the rising market.  

    The negative impacts were hyper-local - down to the street level.

     Charlie, were you able to quantify how bad the local impacts were?

    Von, I like your idea of looking into demographics and will do some research on it later and post.

  • China, ME · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8y

    @Account Closed I never did a study on it.  Once the new train was a fait accomplice it didn't much matter.

    It was just a mess that the abutters had to deal with.

    However, I can tell you that when working with buyers, my objective is to talk them OUT of every property they loos at.  This is so that they will be happy with whatever home they eventually choose.  

    Proximity to train tracks is one of the primary factors I encourage them to consider.

  • Investor · Asbury, NJ · Member since 2015 · 226 posts · 205 votes
    8y

    Time to sell? More like time to raise the rent! Agree with other NJ posters and have noticed myself that rental income properties near train lines sell like hotcakes. You may end up looking like a genius for buying there.

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 7 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Von S.:

    Piggybacking on @Charlie MacPherson's comment, I think another way to analyze whether it's worth holding onto this property is to look at the demographics in your area. In Charlie's experience with the train extension in Scituate, he saw a decrease in home values. This makes sense to me in that I think the demographics in Scituate lean toward more established and older families looking for a peaceful living environment. In my experience, talks of train extension in Somerville (formerly referred to as "Slummerville")-- about a mile or so away from Boston proper, showed increases in price in the exact neighborhood the extension was being built. Further, more mixed-use condos went up in that area as well. My thinking here is that the demographic attracted to Somerville are younger professionals (DINKs or single person household) and they accept the noise as a given to having access to the train. Also, this demographic drive less as well.

    All this said, look around your neighborhood. Do you see older established families or so called millennials moving in? Who are your current renters now? Do you see mixed use condos being built or retirement homes or single family homes? This will give you a sense of the demographic trends and you can decide whether this will increase the demand for your property or not when the train comes in. Also, most city economic dept. break down demographics by neighborhood so you might want to check into this-- usually available on city's website.

     In my area, housing is a mix of SFRs and duplexes, with a larger apartment every here and there.  Not too many new developments I'm aware of, but I don't expect the housing mix to change considerably.  I'd consider the larger neighborhood working class.  Majority Hispanic.  The local area on my street is probably one of the nicer/nicest parts of the town - lots of neighbors have re-modeled, a really nice duplex is being developed down the street that will be listed for $1M to $1.3M.  Most SFRs in the city probably would go for 450k to 650k right now, duplexes 500k to 750k.   Neighbors in my immediate vicinity are, again, diverse.  Mix of retirees, working class families (landscaper, salesman, dry cleaner worker, etc.), and some younger higher-income couples w/o kids (age mid-thirties) moving in.

    I did some research online and found a few relevant data points for the overall city:

    Median HH income is 55k vs. 68k average in CA.

    Medium duplex value is 530k (my duplex is one of the nicer ones, thus higher value and much higher rent premium)

    Median gross rent 1400 monthly per unit

    Demographics: 65% Hispanic, 15% white, ~10% black, ~10% Asian

    Average age 35 years old

    40% never married, 45% married

    ~40% residents foreign born

    ~80% residents commute by car (makes sense - we are right by a major freeway and no commuter train present day), 20% other modes of transportation

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