Originally posted by @Von S.:
Piggybacking on @Charlie MacPherson's comment, I think another way to analyze whether it's worth holding onto this property is to look at the demographics in your area. In Charlie's experience with the train extension in Scituate, he saw a decrease in home values. This makes sense to me in that I think the demographics in Scituate lean toward more established and older families looking for a peaceful living environment. In my experience, talks of train extension in Somerville (formerly referred to as "Slummerville")-- about a mile or so away from Boston proper, showed increases in price in the exact neighborhood the extension was being built. Further, more mixed-use condos went up in that area as well. My thinking here is that the demographic attracted to Somerville are younger professionals (DINKs or single person household) and they accept the noise as a given to having access to the train. Also, this demographic drive less as well.
All this said, look around your neighborhood. Do you see older established families or so called millennials moving in? Who are your current renters now? Do you see mixed use condos being built or retirement homes or single family homes? This will give you a sense of the demographic trends and you can decide whether this will increase the demand for your property or not when the train comes in. Also, most city economic dept. break down demographics by neighborhood so you might want to check into this-- usually available on city's website.
In my area, housing is a mix of SFRs and duplexes, with a larger apartment every here and there. Not too many new developments I'm aware of, but I don't expect the housing mix to change considerably. I'd consider the larger neighborhood working class. Majority Hispanic. The local area on my street is probably one of the nicer/nicest parts of the town - lots of neighbors have re-modeled, a really nice duplex is being developed down the street that will be listed for $1M to $1.3M. Most SFRs in the city probably would go for 450k to 650k right now, duplexes 500k to 750k. Neighbors in my immediate vicinity are, again, diverse. Mix of retirees, working class families (landscaper, salesman, dry cleaner worker, etc.), and some younger higher-income couples w/o kids (age mid-thirties) moving in.
I did some research online and found a few relevant data points for the overall city:
Median HH income is 55k vs. 68k average in CA.
Medium duplex value is 530k (my duplex is one of the nicer ones, thus higher value and much higher rent premium)
Median gross rent 1400 monthly per unit
Demographics: 65% Hispanic, 15% white, ~10% black, ~10% Asian
Average age 35 years old
40% never married, 45% married
~40% residents foreign born
~80% residents commute by car (makes sense - we are right by a major freeway and no commuter train present day), 20% other modes of transportation
