Are we due for a correction?

[Ivan Wong]

I have been listening to several podcasts lately. It seems like a lot of the bigger players are starting to sit on the sidelines anticipating a correction in the near future. I was curious other peoples thoughts. 

[Jay Hinrichs]

again this is regional in my mind and asset specific... Multi is cooling from what I hear.

Amazon and on line retailers are really starting to impact the commercial retail landlord ( big malls)

some studies indicate over 2 billion surplus sq ft of commercial retail.

High end is cooling in some markets  think Texas we are seeing that.. there is price push back from the buyer.

other markets like what we are doing in Charleston is off the charts with prices rising 20% in one year on new builds... I have 3 in escrow right now that I built one we expected an exit at 550k and budgeted for that.. Pending 720k... been in the deal for 11 months closes next week.

Another we budgeted 530 ish  Pending at 620k  closes mid May

And last week we put our small gut job 4 plex and built a brand new 3 plex behind it.. projected at 1.2  pending at 1.350.. 

Portlandia same thing.. we broke ground on 23 new builds this week... last year this time those same homes sold in the 360 to 380k range.. this year 430 to 450k... same lot same home ( a little better location to be fare).

deals we did in Texas went backwards.. project exits in the mid 500's never got there.. have one now projected at 400 we are at 350k... so in my mind regional for sure.   And asset class's

our turnkey partners are killing it all having record years.. the buyer pool for 1% deals is very strong. and at the end of the day these folks are still paying less than replacement cost for that C to B SFR in the major turn key markets... As well as in some of these turn key markets we are investing heavily in infill areas that are re gentrifying this is non stop and continues strong.