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Updated over 7 years ago, 04/03/2017

User Stats

122
Posts
87
Votes
Ben S.
  • Investor
  • Tampa, FL
87
Votes |
122
Posts

Preparing for and profiting from a crash

Ben S.
  • Investor
  • Tampa, FL
Posted

I have a few predictions about the economy, and am looking for the strategies of those who have a similar views. I'm not looking to discuss differing views, just if you agree with this view.

First, I believe the economy will crash in the coming 2 years (likely within 1 year). This is due to the stock market being far overvalued, the usual 8 year economic cycle, and the economies of other countries that will likely crash first and then domino around the world (China, Japan, EU). I do not expect a zombie apocalypse or any such thing, but a situation as bad overall or maybe worse than 2008. 

Due to this, I would like to both be prepared for such a crash to not lose anything, as well as be able to profit from it. 

I am currently focusing exclusively on rentals as I believe the demand will remain or grow stronger, though prices may drop a bit. I want to not only be able to live on my rental income, but have plenty of extra in case prices drop more than i expect.

Regarding debt during a crash, is there any advantage to having loans through big banks versus small banks? I don't believe interest rates will increase during this time, as the central banks will continue their strategy of lowering rates to try to help the economy. 

I want to keep a fair amount of cash reserved to cover possible extra vacancies.

For the profit side, I plan to keep some money in gold and silver, as they generally go up during a crash, and are not dependant on currency (i'm not really sure what the dollar will do during this time). I think it's too risky, but I could keep more debt on the rentals and purchase more gold/silver or have more cash on hand, as it may be harder to borrow during/after the crash.

Once the economy has stablized a bit, I want to sell the gold/silver and pool my cash to purchase more real estate at a discount, likely rentals homes, a mobile home park, or a small apartment building. I could also purchase homes with more focus on the appreciation as the market goes up again than the monthly cash flow.

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