How is my analysis?

[Jack M.]

I'm looking at buying my first rental property that was specifically intended for rent (as opposed to my current rental which happened on accident after the crash).

I just want to bounce my thoughts off of BP as a sounding board to make sure I'm looking at this properly.

I have about 50k to spend on a property in a different state. I have a property management company that also has a turnkey service to buy new properties. I understand this will eat into my margins, but I can't see myself flying down to oversee maintenance for a few weeks. 

There are a few houses in this particular area that are selling for about $25k, will take about $15k in repairs to get it in rental shape, and should rent for about 1k per month. The turnkey fee for overseeing construction is 20% of the construction costs (how badly am I getting ripped off there?) so my total cash needed, after closing costs and everything, are about $46k. The ARV should be about 55k.

My property management company has several properties in the neighborhood, and they assure me that they're renting them out for 1k to 1100 per month. 

I estimate the monthly expenses to be about $620, so my monthly cash flow should be $380 a month, or ~$4500 a year, so around a 10% cash on cash ROI. I know that's a little on the low side,

I came up with the expenses like this:

15% vacancy

20% Repairs and CapEx

10% Property Management

$50 insurance

$170 taxes

I know there has been a lot of talk about these $30k houses. The latest podcast had an in-depth discussion about the pros and cons about those houses (@Ben Leybovich was particularly harsh on them), but those they were talking about were renting for more like $500 a month, not $1000.

I was also considering using my money as a down payment and getting a "better" property, but I will be unable to get a conventional mortgage since I've only been self-employed for 8 months (and I need 2 years), and I'm not sure I'm comfortable getting too creative with my financing at this point starting out, especially when I'm looking at a 10% ROI on a turnkey property.

Any thoughts on this? What have I missed, if anything? Am I making a horrible mistake as a newbie, or is this sensible?

[Ben Leybovich]

You are about to spend $50,000. Get on an airplane - go there - call for rent numbers. Go see the units. Figure out the age, location, and amenity package. Call the police and find out what they have on their radar for the area. $50,000 is a lot of money, and I would think you'd want to have more personal knowledge than talking to a few property managers...

And then you're still going to lose money. You can buy inflation protected bonds - why bother? You won't see any appreciation on these, and the CF is very subject...