Asians drive faster than normal appreciation in RE: Fact or Myth?

Question

I know that jobs, population growth of high income demographics, permit & land restriction, warmer weather with a good lifestyle, all have an influence in faster capital appreciation in real estate. What about Asians? Is it a myth or a fact that higher concentration of Asian demographics allow real estate prices to appreciate faster ultimately leading into a bubble?

Monta Vista High is the flagship high school of Cupertino, CA. In 1995, Monta Vista became an Asian majority high school.

Cupertino, CA - Northern California
median income: $145,367
median home price : $1,768,700
HI ratio: 12.16

University High is the flag ship high school of Irvine, CA. In 2004, University High became an Asian majority high school.

Irvine, CA  - Southern California

median income: $98,923 median home price: $733,100 HI ratio: 7.41

Northview High is the flag ship high school of Johns Creek, GA. In 2012, Northview became and Asian majority high school.

Johns Creek, GA - North Atlanta Suburb median income: $109,576 median home price: $344,300 HI ratio : 3.14

Jay Hinrichs · Answer

@James  Park  I was raised in Cupertino... moved there in 1962... when it was just a dusty old farming community in the Santa Clara Valley... Where apple headquarters are now ( just look at the map feature on an I phone the default setting is there headquarters.. Its at the corner of Hwy 9 and Stevens Creek blvd those streets were still gravel when I first moved there.

In those days the economy rose and fell with Lockheed aerospace, And Ames Research Center ... And that was the first set of Engineers that descended on Santa Clara valley. before that it was an AG. community.

So when I went to primary school it was 95% caucasion with the rest mixed. And in fact the larger Asian populations were Japanese some of my life long best friends to this day were original Japanese families in the valley.

Schools were good in the area but they were also basically brand new as were the communities there was no inner city stuff and it was middle of the road in values etc.

Next came 70 and 80 and the advent of the personal computer.. And as HP  Intel and Apple sprung up you had a HUGE need for engineer's and those that would launch this industry and as such you had JOBS creating the next influx of employees and the Asian populations were at that time educating their kids at a furious rate and many were in computing and engineering... So those Engineers started moving to Cupertino in Mass . Asians and Indians. the older Caucasians ( like my parents) who bought their homes for 20 to 30k in the 60's were getting offers of 350 to 500k in the late 80's and you had many sell out and move to the CA. foothills  ( Oregon became a favorite destination) as Account Closed alluded to... So the Schools and the area transformed over 20 years and the old residences were replaced by highly motivated computer engineers that a great majority were Asian.

Now I lived in Palo Alto from 84 to 92 and our schools were the best in the state even ranked higher than Cupertino but Not as many Asians moved there because of the competition from Stanford and The money brokers on Sand hill road etc. more of a true melting pot.. I remember going to a grade school pot lunch dinner and one of the teachers commenting there were students from 27 different countries in our grade school.

As a community though there is no deny that The Asian parent or Culture is pro education to the extreme and a very TIGHT family unit.. to the point also were they will have 2 to 4 generations living in one houses hold so there buying power was quite strong as well.  My first home in bought in 1976 was in Milpitas a brand new Shapell home... I bought the smallest home for 78k brand new.. my neighbor across the street they were Asian.. and they had 3 generations living in the same sq st home as my wife and I shared alone. However when talking to the neighbor next door to them a Chiropractor he said he rented from them.. And it turned out when the subdivision opened they bought 4 homes in a row. the one they all shared and 3 of the biggest 2 stories that they rented. I suppose they probably still own them all.

So I think a place like Cupertino was two fold HIGH tech central and the jobs and schools followed because of the high percent of high acheiveing Asian students.

Account Closed · Answer

@James  Park, why even ask when you already know the answer? Asians love real estate. Although I cannot quantify the percentage that Asians help to inflate home prices, I concur with your research. I guess this is why Oregonians don't like Californians moving to their neck of the woods... isn't that right @Jay Hinrichs?

As @Radhika M. mentioned above, it's true that schools with predominantly Asians and White are doing better than schools with other races by a wide margin. However, it's politically incorrect to talk about it. She's also right in her observation that Asians tend to keep their properties and pass them down to future generations.

My nuclear family and my wife's nuclear family haven't sold their first house. They either pass them down or rent them out as they move up. This restricts the rate of real estate turnover as usually reported by the media to be between 5-7 years. In fact, I have my theory of how they came up with this 5-7 years number.  Of course, this is only one data point.  :0)

In general, Asians value education. I guess the parents want to give their kids a higher chance of being success by paying a premium home price to be sure their kids are in the right environment. After all, it's not what you know, but is who you know. You don't send your kids to an Ivy Leavue University for an education; you send them their for the network and connection. That's how I view it though.

Anthony Gayden · Answer

It probably would be wise to consider a few things about the Asian American population.

According to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income

Asian American's lead all other races in median household income at $68,088 per year.

According to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_United_States

Asian Americans had the highest educational attainment of any race at 50.1%

According to:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/tables/43tabledatadecoverviewpdf

Crime rates for Asian Americans are very low.

Keeping those things in mind, a community with a large Asian American population will likely have higher incomes, lower crime, and be better educated. This of course will likely lead to a healthier real estate market.

Also keep in mind that the Asian American population is the fastest growing minority group in the US.

Charles Worth · Answer

@James  Park

Interesting analysis as your work always is.  However, I think in this case it may be that you are seeing a giant feedback loop. Asians tend to have higher incomes and do better in school (a gross generalization I know but there are stats supporting this) so it would stand to reason that a lot of Asians would support higher prices though tough to know if that is more due to being upper income and all that brings with it or not.

Other interesting questions could be the affect on house sizes due to larger families that include grandparents and cash purchases if there are lot of foreign nationals buying.

It would also be interesting to look at areas (if any) that were transformed by Asians moving in (vs. some areas you mentioned which were already nice areas) and compare it to hipsters who are notorious for transformation.

Karen Margrave · Answer

Also, as to the bay area. I was born in San Jose. I know that my mother and her sisters all worked in the electronics industry during and after WW11.  Those companies were located in Sunnyvale and Santa Clara. My mother and one sister worked for Ampex, and their older sister worked for IBM. They were large employers, paying high wages with good benefits. Years later my older sister went to work for a company named Varians, and then her son. That was when computer technology was really beginning to take off.

The point is, computer technology evolved from the electronics industry, etc., and back then, the technology nor the workforce came from Asian roots. However; as the technology race started, it seems other countries which are much more disciplined in their education and producing more engineers (doctors, etc.)  are dominating the field.  My personal opinion is that it's because their education is more laser focused on math and science, than the broad based education we have in American universities. They also don't have the teachers unions to contend with in India, Asia, etc. that America does, but I digress.

I will say, watching those kids in Irvine, and the way those families all work together in raising the younger generation was very eye opening, and impressive. The term "it takes a village" is not just a term, but a way of life in those cultures.

Karen Margrave · Answer

@Radhika M.I believe has the correct answer. The areas such as Irvine have good schools, which draw buyers wanting in the school districts, not vice versa. When we first moved to Orange County from the actual northern California, we weren't sure where we wanted to live. The first city we tried was Newport Beach, which was a great area, but too far away from my daughters. Then we moved into an apartment in Irvine which was closer.

Our apartment was close to the community building. There was a big population of people that were from China, Korea, Thailand, and India, along with people from Russia, Greece, Japan, and of course the USA. Many of the grandmothers from the asian and Indian families would walk the kids to school in the mornings, then meet them after school. They would come directly home and go to the community center where they did their homework, very rarely did you see them out playing.  They were very disciplined.

We also had some of the kids that we got to know well. There was one family from China and the boy had mental health issues. The father was very embarrassed by it. Many times the boy came to our apartment upset and saying things like his mother was going crazy and being mean. We'd of course go talk to her, and try to help by letting the kids come hang out with us sometimes. She was under a tremendous amount of stress because of the pressure on her to make sure the kids excelled in school, etc. I don't know if it was a cultural thing, or just a family issue.

As to the housing prices, Donald Bren pretty much controls the entire market in Irvine, and limits the supply of homes, office, retail space, etc. coming on the market, and by doing so is able to keep prices up. He also develops schools in every community he builds, meaning they're never overcrowded. I think that has far more to do with appreciation than the ethnicity of the buyers.

Jay Hinrichs · Answer

@James  Park  agree with all except the bubble part... in the Bay Area at least the West Bay from Marin county down to Los Gatos the home prices have all rose on a par with Cupertino... be them heavy to Asian or not...

Its just frankly a world class place to live  and as such it has world class prices throughout the region...  and their are communities surrounding Cupertino that are higher priced. Saratoga, Monte Sereno' much of Los Gatos.. Los Altos' Los Altos hills etc etc.. Monta Vista is on a par..

Radhika M. · Answer

@James  Park I am not sure there is 100% generalize this but from my observation here in the bay area the schools with Asian majority do much better than schools with less Asian. People tend buy for higher for good schools and I see in general that area's with good schools appreciate faster than others.

I am in Cupertino area and know the schools and area very well and the appreciation rate has been crazy here. My neighbor bought their house for 350K in 1996 and now the house is work around 1.8 Million. Their property taxes are still so low that even when their kids are done with school they don't plan to move. Also the median income is misleading I think for area's like Cupertino because there are lot retirees still living in the area because they bought the house in 1950 or 1960's and pay so low property taxes that they have no motivation to leave. Most people in the area should be making 250K. If they are two income people they should easily make 350k+. This is just based on my observations.

Jay Hinrichs · Answer

@James  Park  and as you move up the peninsula you have Atherton ,  Woodside,

and any of the properties that are in the hills above Redwood city , San Burno , San Mateo,

Hillsborough is big dollars much higher than Cupertino same with my birth place Burlingame.. and of course good Ole SF is fairly high as well.

Account Closed  Not sure if I remember were Minh lives but I think he may be south of San Jose and there are great small acreage estates all up and own the valleys going south leading to Gilroy San Martin etc.

Amit M. · Answer

I think we have to be careful to distinguish between cause and effect here.

You can say certain Asians influence the housing market in an upward direction- those with wealth, education and influence that tend to prefer certain and specific locations. But remember, most Asians, like most people in America, are not wealthy.

If you're talking about the Bay Area/SF specifically, the primary driver was technology, and Asians are very involved in the field. But the driver was and is technology.

Asians drive faster than normal appreciation in RE: Fact or Myth?

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