The End Is Near - San Diego Is On Fire (Sale) - Supply Is Up - Prices Are Down

[Ken M.]

San Diego's housing market is seeing a noticeable shift as more homeowners list their properties at reduced prices.

According to Realtor.com, the median listing price in San Diego dropped 4.8 percent year-over-year as of the week of March 8, 2025.

At the same time, active listings surged by 63.8 percent compared to last year, signaling that many homeowners are choosing to sell — even if it means settling for lower prices.

Still, Gerli says the rising inventory warning comes with an important caveat: California's housing supply is expanding from a state of severe shortage, and today just 0.6 percent of the state's homes are on the market.

Statewide, housing inventory in CA remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

[Dan H.]

Quote from @Ken M.:

San Diego's housing market is seeing a noticeable shift as more homeowners list their properties at reduced prices.

According to Realtor.com, the median listing price in San Diego dropped 4.8 percent year-over-year as of the week of March 8, 2025.

At the same time, active listings surged by 63.8 percent compared to last year, signaling that many homeowners are choosing to sell — even if it means settling for lower prices.

Still, Gerli says the rising inventory warning comes with an important caveat: California's housing supply is expanding from a state of severe shortage, and today just 0.6 percent of the state's homes are on the market.

Statewide, housing inventory in CA remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

 None of my core logic links seem to be working at this time (for the last few days - I question if something is wrong with their site), but going from memory the most recent YOY I saw from core logic was around positive 4% for San Diego.  I saw this within the last month on an article comparing 20 markets’ RE appreciation.

Neighborhoodscout shows San Diego at over 10% positive appreciation for 12 months and 2.45% in the latest quarter.   
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-diego/real-estate#:....  

I do not know how to explain the discrepancy as I consider each source reputable.

I look at RE prices in the San Diego market daily. My own feel (without having ran any numbers) is that SFR have continued at a slower pace of appreciation than the double digit that we may have gotten accustomed.. Residential MF seem to have fallen a little. Commercial MF like virtually all areas is down noticeably, but not down enough to have day 1 positive cash flow at high LTV.

The realtor.com data does not match what I am seeing (too pessimistic).  The neighborhoodscout data on the other side does not seem accurate (too high appreciation reflected).  Core logic seems to be most in line with what I am seeing.

In summary, 3 seemingly reliable sources have very different numbers but what I am seeing is continued crazy high values that require either a value add or long hold to make sense as an investment.

Good luck