Ductless HVAC or Ducted?

[John Brinkos]

I have a 1800 ft 5 bedroom place that is a college student housing property. Currently there is baseboard heat and window AC. My electric bills were in the $900/mth realm this winter (avg temp 30). The house is 1930's so insulation is iffy. Single pain windows. There are efficiencies I can take with lower cost like upgrade windows but the heart of my question is does the cost of a HVAC system overcome the cost of equipment and installation of the equipment? Should I move toward a whole house ducted HVAC system and control settings or a ductless room by room heat pump/ AC setup? Which provides more long term (5 year horizon) cost effectiveness when monthly cost savings are offset with cost of unit and installation? Thanks for any thoughts. John