Gut Check My Beginner Thinking

[Andrew Baisley]

Hi Everyone, I apologize in advance for the wall of text. I have some ideas on how I want to get started in this business and I was hoping that this might be the right place to get a reality/gut-check.

First, some general background... I have no actual experience with real estate. There. I said it. However, I have done my research.

I have a mentor who is a very active flipper and Section 8 landlord (she is in Florida, while I'm in NYC, though). I've read the guides here on Bigger Pockets, I've listened to all the podcasts, I lurk in the forums, I've done lots of deal analysis using my own Excel sheets and other people's numbers (for practice/fun), I've read the staple books (Kiyosaki, Ferris), and, in a past life, I remodeled homes, so I have good DIY and building experience.

I think I understand the basics on paper.

Beyond that, I'm relatively intelligent and successful in my day job. I'm also patient and have, I think, realistic expectations. I don't put any stock at all in HGTV or this crazy flipping trend happening in pop culture.

My goals:

- Q1 2014: Have my first deal done
- End of 2014: Generate enough deal flow that it makes sense to leave my day job and get out from behind a desk (with the support of my wife, who is totally on board with all this, but likes working at a big company with a stable job!)
- Next several years (5-10 yrs)/long term: Generate $12,000 / month in net positive cash flow

In broad strokes, here's my plan:

- Do my first deal in an area within a 3 hour drive of NYC, maybe the Utica/Albany area or along the I-87 Thruway corridor.
- Do my first deal all cash or nearly all cash, spending $75-90k on a duplex (includes any rehab costs)
- Immediately use the equity in the home to finance another, slightly larger (or nicer) property in the same area
- Rinse and repeat until I've met my goals
- Occasionally flip properties if the opportunity is there (as I have the skills and experience to do much of the work myself), but main strategy is buy, hold and rent

So, a few questions:

- I know there are about a million and one ways this'll go off plan, slightly or entirely, but at a high level, is this a sound strategy? Are my timelines realistic with my resources?
- I've thought of possibly starting with some smaller deals, maybe flipping several mobile homes, to get my feet wet. Logic being, if I totally lose my shirt on a $5-10k deal, it won't be the end of me. Or, possibly flipping some smaller single family homes, to avoid the issues specific to mobile homes (which I know nothing about, having never even stepped foot in a mobile home).
- What would you suggest I do next?
- Does anyone have specific advice about Albany, Utica, Syracuse, Troy, Schenectady or even further southeast, like New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, etc? (I realize that this is a very wide swath - I'd like to pick one of these areas to focus on for all my properties and not, ultimately, spread myself too thin).

I hope that this is the right place to post this. If it's not, please tell me so that I can move it.

And, THANK YOU, in advance for any input. You guys are awesome.

Andrew