USA Macro Market Analysis - Comments welcome!

[Henry Murray]

Hi BP!

I'm a newbe who lives in California and I've been spending the last 4-6 months reading everything real estate related that I can, staying up to date on the forums here and listening to all of the BP podcasts that I can. Like everybody knows, CA is really expensive and I'm looking for cashflow over appreciation (and a lower entry price) so I've been trying to decide where in the US I should start looking in more depth.  I wanted to do an objective analysis so I figured out what parameters were most important for a reliable, cash flowing market (Low price/rent, positive population growth or influx, and job growth) tried to quantify them in widely available statistics and put them all together for the major (and some data for minor) metropolitan statistical areas.  

If anyone is interested in taking a look the spreadsheet is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XGAQdAPn-D..., feel free to copy it to excel and sort/filter to help find what is most useful to you. Feedback and comments on my criteria, method, or sources is also welcome!

Sources: Price to Rent and Median Home data is from Zillow Data, population data is from US Census Estimates, and unemployment is from Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Originally posted by @Henry Murray:

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

Originally posted by @John M.:

@Henry Murray Hi Henry and thanks for posting, I can be a data junkie so this is really great info for someone like me!

I am in the same boat as you, with regard to prices all over California.  So I invested out of state in Nevada (Las Vegas).  Although the cash flow is I think average, the appreciation potential is great, the population is in high growth mode, as well as job growth.  So I think there's a lot of future rent price appreciation potential that other cities may not have which will benefit cash flow. Plus it's right next door and I know the market well.  So for me it ended up being the perfect market to invest in.  

Have you found any particular markets based on your analysis that you like?

that's a wise move.. and the weather is better than areas that are prone to thunderstorms and high humidity ( Houston) and severe cold.

plus is a fun place to visit and no income tax if you can take residency.. I think Vegas has legs personally.. though I like Indy as well for value add.. I am not keen on Texas personally because of prop tax's and weather related issues. and foundation issues.. 

other than the sun beating on Vegas homes they hold up pretty well. 

 Hi @Jay Hinrichs, Thanks for your thoughts! Maybe I should take a closer look at Vegas and at least see how it compares with the data I've put together.  Like you said the only weather related problem they really have there in Vegas is a lot of sun... Do you think that Indy has a lot of potential to improve as a city or did you mean that you like buying property there that you can add some value to?  I've done a bit of looking around Indy in more detail over the past week and there are a lot more areas with a lot worse crime than I initially realized and that's not something that I want to be too close to.

all cities have bad crime areas.. Vegas for sure Houston for sure every city... you simply don't buy in those areas.

all things being equal I like the low prop tax's in INdy and the economy there is perfect for the rental class.