How do you assess the "Path of Progress" for a city?

[Josh Stack]

Evening BP!

I hear the 'Path of Progress" discussed on the podcast regularly and often.  It's usually vaguely defined or even just alluded to without much in the way of specifics but I take it to mean the geographical direction of development, gentrification and or social and economic growth of a city.  The theory goes that if you invest ahead of the 'wave' of progress you stand to reap the rewards of appreciation and a rising tide lifting all boats effect.

The question I have is how to do actually assess, systematically what the path of progress of a given area is?  A site search doesn't turn up much except for the helpful blog post linked below.  What if you are searching the nation for investment areas though and have narrowed a short list and need to assess the path of progress remotely?  How could you research the path of progress for Greenville, SC; Syracuse, NY or Tempe, AZ remotely when you can't hang out at the city hall and take the clerks donuts and lattes once a week?

One thing is to be local, it's another to try and ascertain this soft type of market data from afar.  I'd very much like to hear what you may have done in the past and what tips and tricks you have to share?

Thanks,

-Josh.

Post: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/8617/53771-how-to-find-and-profit-from-the-path-of-progress 

[Ben Fraser]

Hi y'all,

Look at the City's Master Plan and Future Zoning Map. Pay particular attention to the City's Capital Improvements Plan, which might be a separate document or might be rolled into either the Comprehensive Plan, the Master Plan, Transportation Plan, or some other planning document.

The documents above usually reference 10 year futures and are updated every 3-5 years. Citizen input via community meetings are almost always a part of the process so, if there is any mention of that then try to be there or, failing that, YouTube the meeting (or charrette or design charrette, as they are sometimes called) afterwards. If there aren't any videos being made of that process then try to find news articles or public information about them on the City and/or County's official site.

There's also something to be said for simple Google and/or Google Maps searches, such as "newest Dollar General in Greenville, SC" or "best discount used tires in Greenville, SC" because, chances are, the Dollar General corporation (and the like) is not going to put up a new store in what they believe is an up-and-coming area.

On the flip side, try to scope out when and where big players are making moves. For instance, in Lansing, MI, the Sparrow Hospital just finished building a multimillion dollar Cancer Center (and, if not a hospital improvement then perhaps a new University building).

So, think about similar buildings being planned by major players in the City's and County's stronger economic sectors, and ask yourself "if I'd been aware of it ahead of time, might I have been able to score a few cheap houses or strip malls and been able to flip them to the new, highly-paid employees of the Center or to businesses trying to sell to those consumers?"

Finally, ask yourself, "When was the last time I saw an Applebees or a Chiles in a rough part of town and (since you know where I'm going with this example) are any Applebees/Chiles/similar restaurants being built in my focus areas?

Good luck and thanks for posting to BP!

Ben