*HELP First time homebuyer wanting a rental property, should I pull out of this deal?

[Jacob Olson]

Hi, just stumbled upon biggerpockets on spotify today as I'm getting pretty desperate considering it's the last day I can pull out of an agreement at no forfeiture of my EMD. Five days ago I signed with a new construction out in North Las Vegas near North Decatur due to some competitive incentives they offered. I jumped into the deal thinking this was too good to pass up but now I feel I may have made the wrong decision after running some personal finance numbers and how it will be a negative cashflowing property, looking for anyone knowledgeable in this and familiar with the las vegas market to give some advice please. Listed below breaks down the whole thing.

My gross yearly income: $52,752

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Total Estimated Monthly Payment

Principal & Interest $ 1,891.50

Monthly Hazard Insurance*** $ 31.42

Monthly Property Taxes*** $ 304.54

HOA Dues $ 204.00

Community Dev District Fee *** $ 41.33

Total Monthly Payment $ 2,472.79

Here's my original naive plan, 

I bought into a $365,000 VA loan at 4.5%, no down payment, and with the incentives this new build is offering, I am paying a total of $2000 in closing costs which means I don't have to come out of pocket too much and they're paying for the rate buy down from 4.99% to 4.5% (4.99% was the original incentive they offered). The mortgage payment is around $2500/mo and it could rent for around $2,100/mo It's a 3 bed 2 bath condo (looks and feels like a townhome). I already have two roommates that will be paying me in total $1500/mo for rent until I move out in 1.5–2 years. After I move the home will be managed by a property management company that charges an 8% fee. Now depending on what my property is valued at in two years I'll decide to either sell it or keep renting it out at the cash flow negative of around $610/mo until the property is worth more than the cost of selling and how much money I've lost renting it out for the 3+ years but if my property appreciates in value 3% a year, in 5 years that's $423,135.04 and if I sell then I would pay ~8% in selling costs which is $33,840 + the cashflow negative rent for 3 years ~$25,620 + the closing cost money I spent when buying $2000 + misc. expenses $10,000 = $71,460 spent. Price of sale: $423k minus expenses: $71,460 = $351,540. Now according to the amortization schedule on the loan in 5 years, I will have a remaining balance of $340,379 take the sale returns of $351,540 and pay off the remaining balance of $340,379 which leaves room for a $10,161 profit over the course of 5 years which is better than renting in those 5 years... right?

[Bill B.]

Zero profit is better than renting for 5 years. I can’t see where you added the extra income from increasing rent 5%+ per year but that’s also additional savings you aren’t paying 5%  additional rent per year by the 5th year you are either paying 25% more rent or collecting 25% more rent. 

I’m not saying anything specific about this deal as I’m not a big condo/townhome fan. I’m just saying you have much more control as the landlord than the tenant about when you have to move. Plus you’re living in a new build instead of an exiting unit. Plus you get to take a bunch of passive losses for tax savings. 

Personally I’ve never considered a new property but I am seriously considering doing a 1031 exchange in to the DR Horton new builds north east of the Aliante casino. Heartland falls/summit/Manor.