Is This A Good RE Investment???

[Elizabeth Williams]

Hello BP!

We are new to investing in multifamily units and need some confirmation on if we're going in the right direction or not. We live in California and are on the last day of our due diligence for a duplex in Atlanta. Our initial projection of rents has been significantly reduced by the reality of what is currently showing on the market. We are planning to rent out the duplex to Section 8 tenants, but Section 8 maximum rents are not guaranteed, so we reduced projected rents down to what is showing on Zillow. The property was very attractive to us because of the potential cash flow, depreciation, and that it is on a large lot that is zoned for R4. We envision renting it out for 2-5 years, then tearing down to build a small subdivision. The lot size is huge at 1.8 acres. The current owner provided his old zone plans that was for 22 units and this was very encouraging for us to see the potential in developing the property. 

The duplex needs a lot of work and based on the lowest contractor estimates, we're at about $80K for rehab that will hopefully get us 5 good years of being safe, livable, rentable and cash flowing, but it is a lot of patching/reinforcing and not completely replacing the major issues. The total out of pocket would be about $141K including the down payment, credit from the seller, & rehab. The cash flow is projecting at $1.3K/mo, which is significantly less than our original projection. We're taking a distribution from a rolled over 401K for this deal. We're thinking that the cash flow, plus the depreciation, plus the ability to develop the land with a small subdivision in the near future make this still a good deal. Does this make sense to move forward on? What are we missing, if anything? Any suggestions and comments are welcome. Thank you. 

$325K Counter Offer for Purchase Price  (seller hasn't agreed to this yet it, is currently at $340K)

6% Seller Contribution (seller hasn't agreed to this yet it, is currently at $8K)

7.25% Rate

20% Down

$80K Rehab

Rents $4.2K/month

Total Monthly Expenses $2.8K

Cash Flow $1.3K