How do/did you pick and learn your market?

How do/did you pick and learn your market?

Residential Landlord · San Mateo, CA · Member since 2013 · 49 posts · 12 votes

So first off, as a new guy I just have to say THANK YOU to every BP member, I have never learned so much in such a short time!

Second of all, apologies for the long post, I have been reading and listening to podcasts and I guess I just have a ton of questions, so please point me to any prior content if this has already been covered.

Since I am in the San Francisco area and need some time to determine the best way to come up with my down payment, I thought I would "learn my market" but first I need to pick a market and would appreciate your feedback.

Based on the podcasts and posts I have reviewed so far, it seems to me that I have a couple of choices:

1) Go a few hours from SF and start there. I have some friends from school who could be my feet on the ground and may be interested in being the property management part of the business, but I would still be able to get out to the area and get my feet on the ground as well.

2) Go turn key on a “distant state” (5 hour plane ride) using a turn key company, coupled with property management, but their seems to be a discrepancy between appraised value and what the turn key companies need to get their profit, so appreciation on resale would be at risk

3) Partner with a great property management company (although figuring out if the property management company is “great” is a whole other thing) and find a property on my own or link up with a BP wholesaler on a “distant state” property. I could probably negate the appreciation risk, but being able to assess rentability and a really good neighborhood would be difficult or take more than a trip or two.

4) Going back to Portland, OR where my vacation rental is. I have a maintenance guy, but the market there seems to be peaking and I am pretty sure I would have to do a rehab property to make the deal viable and I do not think my maintenance guy is up to the size of project we would have to do.

So I would appreciate any thoughts you all have on “picking a market” and the lessons you learned.

My questions about learning the market:

1) How did each you approach this? I have found some great spread sheets on the site and some software, but nothing seems to summarize all the reviewed properties on a single sheet to allow comparisons within a zip code or area. Are comparisons between properties unimportant? I really learn best by documenting and planning and do not want to reinvent the wheel

2) How do assess appreciation rates, do you go back 10 or 20 years, or do you not spend a lot of time on this?

3)In addition to the numbers, what else do you look at Crime?, Schools? Neighborhood upkeep? What is your tolerance and where do you go for data? City Data?

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Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
13y

Hi John,

Welcome to BP. I'm in the Bay Area also. You're asking a lot of great questions but the first thing you need to start with is defining your overall investment objective. Is it buy and hold for cash flow or appreciation or fix and flip. If you're looking for cash flow, you really have no choice but to go out of state. It's virtually impossible to get anything to cash flow with a decent cash on cash return here in CA. Once you make that decision, there's a lot of factors that you'll need to look at. Following are some of the main things:

1. What are the population trends? Growing or shrinking?
2. What is the unemployment rate?
3. Are incomes growing or shrinking?
4. Is there a diverse economy and diverse employer base?
5. Is there public and private investment in redevelopment and infrastructure?
6. Are real estate prices stable?
7. What is the rent/price ratio? (not good in CA)
8. Are the landlord/Tenant laws favorable to landlords?

These are some of the main things to look at. I've written a report on how to choose a market. I'll be happy to send it to you if you like.

Wishing you success.

Mike

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  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    13y

    Hi John,

    Welcome to BP. I'm in the Bay Area also. You're asking a lot of great questions but the first thing you need to start with is defining your overall investment objective. Is it buy and hold for cash flow or appreciation or fix and flip. If you're looking for cash flow, you really have no choice but to go out of state. It's virtually impossible to get anything to cash flow with a decent cash on cash return here in CA. Once you make that decision, there's a lot of factors that you'll need to look at. Following are some of the main things:

    1. What are the population trends? Growing or shrinking?
    2. What is the unemployment rate?
    3. Are incomes growing or shrinking?
    4. Is there a diverse economy and diverse employer base?
    5. Is there public and private investment in redevelopment and infrastructure?
    6. Are real estate prices stable?
    7. What is the rent/price ratio? (not good in CA)
    8. Are the landlord/Tenant laws favorable to landlords?

    These are some of the main things to look at. I've written a report on how to choose a market. I'll be happy to send it to you if you like.

    Wishing you success.

    Mike

  • Wholesaler · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2013 · 336 posts · 54 votes
    13y

    John, this will be a little bit off topic but here is a post I read about various states/cities with good cash flow.

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/48/topics/98085-what-are-some-good-cities-for-cashflow

  • Investor · Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2013 · 658 posts · 315 votes
    13y

    Mike - I would like to read your report.

    John - Check out podcast 37. The investor is getting positive cash flow in the inland empire. Kind of similar to you doing it in Fresno or something. Positive cash flow can be done in California once you leave the coast but it is harder to find the deals and certainly doesn't cash flow like the mid west does.

    Here is a recent post on turnkey out of state investing

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/103203-turnkey-and-out-of-state-investing

    My personal feeling on turnkeys is they are good for somebody who wants to stay focused on their non real estate career but would like to invest in a property or two.

  • San Jose, CA · Member since 2013 · 66 posts · 21 votes
    13y

    @Account Closed - Hey John. I'm also from the SF Bay Area and I've been grappling with similar issues in trying to determine the markets I'm going to target.

    Personally I am looking to get rehab experience in CA so I can get experience turning distressed properties into retail worthy properties without adding the learning overhead of rehabbing virtually.

    From there I'm planning to renovate distressed properties for buy and holds out of state for cash flow purposes because as @Mike D'Arrigo mentioned cash flow in CA leaves much to be desired.

    Also there are a handful of San Francisco Bay Area BP'ers who have started meeting informally to network and exchange ideas. I've included the link below in case you are interested in joining us sometime. We've only met once so far but it was really educational that first time. I believe @Sarah Lam is planning on having another one sometime next month.

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/86/topics/102248-san-francisco-meet-up

  • Jerry W.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Thermopolis, WY · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    13y

    @Account Closed , I don't have too much to add as you have gotten some great advice already, but also look at income tax and property tax. Since my state doesn't have income tax I look for favorable taxes. Some states like Texas have great appreciation but very high property taxes. Other states have lower taxes but special rates for rental units, and finally some counties have property taxes in some counties that very different than neighboring counties. If total taxes are 10% more than a neighboring state or county you need to factor it in. Welcome to BP and good luck.

  • Residential Landlord · San Mateo, CA · Member since 2013 · 49 posts · 12 votes
    13y

    Wow, Wow, Wow, the experts deliver once again - thanks so much!

    @Mike D'Arrigo : Thanks so much, I would LOVE your report, please send on over!

    @William T. : Thank you, I will review the thread!

    @Brant : I just finished listening to a podcast about inland California investing (gave me the idea to think about Stockton, Sacramento, and the like), I will jump to 37 and give it a listen, so thanks!

    @Andrew Nguyen : Thanks, I am signed up and looking forward to the next meet-up, I have done a bunch of remodels on my primary residence, but always paid a GC, so while I did the project management, I never got the experience. It seems the big way to save on the rehab is to develop the network of skilled trade people and then do the GC work yourself, is that what you are planning?

    @Jerry W. : excellent add to the checklist, I never considered taxes, thanks so much!

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2013 · 231 posts · 260 votes
    13y

    On taxes, I would keep in mind that you will pay CA income taxes no matter where you invest so long as you are a CA resident. While a place like Texas does not have an income tax it does you no good. Any income taxes you pay in other states would be a credit on your CA return.

    Property taxes do vary a great deal, so a place like Texas you will pay around 2.5% or so - it depends exactly where. There is also no cap so it will increase with the value if your property. This is where CA taxes are much better with Prop 13. For example on my primary residence, I pay only about .6% of its value, because it has appreciated quite a lot over the 15 years I have owned it. In Texas, I'd be paying well over 4 times the property tax.

    Over the long term these property tax caps make a big difference if your property appreciates. Gotta look into each states' rules.

  • Residential Landlord · San Mateo, CA · Member since 2013 · 49 posts · 12 votes
    13y

    @Matt Mason : Another Gem! Thank you so much!!

  • Investor · Chatham, NJ · Member since 2013 · 19 posts · 2 votes
    13y

    Great post. Helped me as well! Thanks.

  • Real Estate Broker · Cape Coral, FL · Member since 2013 · 24 posts · 3 votes
    13y

    @Mike D'Arrigo I would be very interested in your report as well if you don't mind.

  • Specialist · Orange County, CA · Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 623 votes
    13y
    Originally posted by Brant Richardson:

    My personal feeling on turnkeys is they are good for somebody who wants to stay focused on their non real estate career but would like to invest in a property or two.

    You are spot on Brant. There are many benefits to recently renovated, tenant occupied, and cash-flowing properties. Lack of time, resources and/or experience are primary reasons. However, I wouldn't sop at "a property or two". There is no reason to limit yourself. Build your portfolio as large as you like to meet your investing goals.

    Continued success!

  • Rental Property Investor · Lehi, UT · Member since 2012 · 65 posts · 22 votes
    13y

    On learning my market: I am doing this right now, having recently moved from Washington to Utah. My method is to use the MLS (I have my license) to look at all the properties in an area that I'm interested in (in a price range I'm interested in) and create a master spreadsheet of data that includes asking price, address, rents. Then I calculate the price per square foot and gross rent multiplier for each property. The end result is a pretty powerful tool for comparing how any given property compares to the current retail market. Of course this is just one aspect of learning your market.

    All the best

  • Abhay K.Pro Member
    Investor · Fremont, CA · Member since 2012 · 64 posts · 45 votes
    13y

    I followed a friend's example and bought SFH rental in Stockton after a 9 month search. Since my interest is in cash flow, 6-7% cap rate was my guide. That was the easy part. Just identify your targets and be prepared to evaluate 100 properties before you find 10 you bid on, to get one accepted bid. It is a game of patience and discipline.

    Most inland cities are good cash flow targets. Just jump in!

  • Residential Landlord · San Mateo, CA · Member since 2013 · 49 posts · 12 votes
    13y

    @Marco Santarelli : You make an excellent point and as a new investor looking to supplement my retirement income, this is one of the strategies I am considering. Also to others like me, make sure to get Marco's 2013 Housing Report, it is a great source of information!!!

    @Jordan Meyer : this is EXACTLY what I am doing right now, but for a couple of different markets that I am considering. Since I will need to pull from my equity in my one of my two properties to get my next one and this will be my first true "investment" property, I know I need to be rock solid on my facts with my wife. So what I am working in is developing a two part narrative for her. The first part will say I considered these markets and chose this one because x, and y and z, and I considered all these house but think we should invest in this one because a, b, and c. Like someone in another post I read said use to your skeptical partner to help you ensure you did your homework!!

    @Abhay K. : Excellent news, I am evaluating the Stockton market as well, congrats! Can you tell me how you found your house (wholesale, your own marketing, or through the online sources?) also, is there a Stockton BP meet up, or do you go to a different one?

    Thanks for being awesome everyone!!!

  • Real Estate Investor · Central, TX · Member since 2012 · 479 posts · 165 votes
    13y

    I chose to invest in my local market. Strong growth is forecast and I greatly value the ability to drive by my houses on my way home from the office.

    You are compiling a lot of good data that can assist you in your strategy, but don't get too focused on creating a perfect process.

    In Texas, we have a saying we like to use; kiss it. (Keep It Simple Stupid). Historical data can shed light on your decision, but when I purchase a property I look at current prices, rents, demand and take my best guess at future expectations. There is no excel spreadsheet or formula that can take the place of a knowledgeable and tempered investor.

    Buy low, sell high.

  • Investor · Snohomish, WA · Member since 2013 · 629 posts · 84 votes
    13y

    I pick markets I am familiar with and within 1-2 hours of total travel time (I like to be able to see the asset physically without too much trouble). Once I have this criteria sorted, I look what development is going on and what appears to be the "path of progress". I will then look to purchase/build multi-family and/or smaller commercial assets in dense populated areas near "power house" developments. I also help investors buy and sell commercial real estate so I spend all day analyzing/underwriting deals and markets throughout the state (and sometimes other states), which definitely helps me stay current with what's going on in these markets.

  • Residential Landlord · San Mateo, CA · Member since 2013 · 49 posts · 12 votes
    13y

    @Ryan R. : Yep, excellent point, I only focus on the process to where it is repeatable and easy and provides me information of value.

    @Zach Schwarzmiller : "Path of progress" excellent - I love it! What are some of the indicators to you of "Path of progress", also how do you defined a "power house" development?

    Many thanks to you both!

  • Real Estate Coach · Venice Beach, CA · Member since 2012 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    13y

    I can only speak for the turnkey side, but I'm a huge fan of it. I think whether you go turnkey or not shouldn't have as much to do with appreciation potential and such as it should how much work you want to put into a property. If you want to do zero work, go turnkey. If you want to be hands-on, I'd go with finding your own property manager and going that route.

    I wrote an article awhile back debating those two methods, maybe it will help-

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2012/12/22/out-of-state-real-estate-investing/

    As far as how to pick markets, I look at 1) whether the numbers work or not (for positive cash flow) and 2) if there is growth happening. I have some access to comparing macro-markets, but not micro-markets. The micro-markets are best differentiated by the teams on the ground, either the property managers or turnkey providers, to be able to explain the differences between locations and properties.

  • Abhay K.Pro Member
    Investor · Fremont, CA · Member since 2012 · 64 posts · 45 votes
    13y

    I went the traditional route. Got a local realtor, searched and bid on 10s of homes for 9 months and then we found a short sale on MLS where buyer walked-out so we stepped in and closed in Jan.

  • Residential Landlord · San Mateo, CA · Member since 2013 · 49 posts · 12 votes
    13y

    @Abhay K. : Excellent, there is hope - well done!

  • Real Estate Investor · Westerville, OH · Member since 2014 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    11y
    Mike D'Arrigo I came across this thread because I'm a new investor in Columbus, OH. Their are a lot of neighborhoods that I could potentially invest and I'm struggling to narrow it down. If you don't mind sharing, I would like a copy of your report. Thanks in advance.
  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    Hi Stephanie,

    You're fortunate that you have a good market right in your back yard. Columbus has a good, modern economy and affordable home prices. DM me your e mail address and I'll be happy to send you the report. It focuses more on evaluating the macro level of a market rather than the neighborhood level. so I'm not sure how helpful it will be.

  • Real Estate Investor · Westerville, OH · Member since 2014 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    11y

    @Mike D'Arrigo Thanks for getting back to me so quickly.  I didn't realize their was a difference.  I still think the information will be helpful.  what's DM mean? I tried to send you message, but that didn't work for me.  I sent you a private note instead.

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