BUT, at the same time you had equity growth of say 5K per year from loan paydown and modest appreciation, so another 10% ROI.

Job growth is one of the biggest indicators of where a real estate market is headed.

Refer to this video below for a more detailed explanation about the disruption cycles that emerging technologies will create and how they will shape and revolutionize the economic landscape in the decades to come. 6 D’s of Exponential Growth@Steve Gertenundefined

I like how the focus is on developing a long term revenue stream, as opposed to flipping which may net more cash in the short term but would need to be invested again for any growth to occur.

The only problem is the acquisition.What is interesting is that with the growth or uber/lyft and scooters, people could be panicking and selling cash flow assets at a slight discount to the "dear developer" price.

You live in a very hot market and it's hot for a reason - high growth prospects, diversified economy and a great weather (might not feel like it at this time of the year). 

Where can I find how fast a city is growing a year?
all I'm seeing is 2000 and 2010 census results

The ARV leaves a good amount of money in the deal when refinancing which is not ideal in regards to growth.

There are literally investor meetings somewhere in the city almost every day, so pick the ones close to you that you think will have a positive impact in your growth and get out there and network! 

I also know the Airbnb growth has increased over the past 3 years in that area and with the new developments it will increase even more.