The thing is IRR is very time sensitive and it is hard to predict things for 30 years.

They're predicting about 42% increase this year in the city. oh there's the door gotta run...

Vrbo.com my bad..typing on tablet with predictive text:)thanks, Matt

The complex will probably be more predictable from a maintenance perspective.  

@Tyler Wolf appreciation is hard to predict.

Or how many of them simply put depreciation and equity predictions into the ROI pro forma.... 

People have been predicting another market crash for last 5 years now and many historic recessions didn't really impact home prices.

My initial reno budget prediction when I did my due diligence was $10,000-$15,000 per unit, which jives pretty well with the first quote that came in at $12,000. 

Why not put those same dollars somewhere else where you can afford the 20%-30% down and get higher cash flow and a more predictable return, in a more stable market.Let's take a 3 bedroom somewhere in Dorchester. 

I also look for properites that are built well (I love homes from the 50's and 60's as they are very predictable) and also the condition of them as well (What's been updated, replaced) that way I know what to expect in capital costs over the next 5-10 years.