These types of centers for convenience are not going away anytime soon folks.If you are in a cold belt state or a weak suburban to rural area in a cold belt or warm belt state then you might have over retailed areas they may never bounce back.

I like the sit down idea- I'm worried he'll be bitter that we tried to move him, but if we talked before close, I could explain that its not personal and that the market for rent, like everything else in the world, has gone up since he originally moved in, happy to have him there, etc. etc. 

This will save you valuable time if you take these preliminary steps before sending them a letter or cold calling them.

Cold wash only.

Electric heat pumps are a slightly different animal, not used much in the northeast because they are ineffecient when it is cold. 

They can be made when it is too cold to pour concrete.

This is true for MF with up to 4 units.The perception that it is tough to find MF deals in a sellers' market when looking at MF with 2 to 4 units is precisely because they are valued using sales comps, so they compete with single family homes.The "true" MF (i.e. 5 and more units) are always valued by the numbers (cap rates comps) whether in hot or cold market.Cheers...

But for now I am cold calling.

Cold Calls?

wrote a blog about one property that deals with a lot of these questions...https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/9786/62083-gardner-way-the-brrrr-that-left-me-feeling-cold