Commercial Real Estate Collapse Opportunity

[Nathan Lovero]

I'm Nathan,

I wanted to start a conversation on the future of commercial real estate and the opportunities that will be presenting themselves in the next few years. The residential markets are getting tighter and tighter due to low barriers to entry, but for commercial I believe there is a lot of potential. 

Malls, strip malls, and stand alone building are expected to be cheap building space that will be unused. How can we maximize this opportunity together? 

We still have a few years to set ideas developed now for this. Please share and see if we could correct what will seem to be vacant commercial buildings all over the country.

Thank You, 

[Joel Owens]

Warehouse is growing but retail IS NOT failing big like people are thinking. For those not in the industry they tend to read news media fodder. News media takes a snippet of information and manipulates it to sensationalize a story.

Online sales make up about 10% of all retail sales currently. Of the 10% about 6% are EXISTING brick and mortar companies expanding their online presence.

Online only companies that are small are currently using a loophole where they pay no sales tax if the company does not have a physical location in the state. There are 30 plus bills in process over many states to start taxing these companies selling online across state lines. Some below a certain small annual sales volume might be exempt when and if the bills pass.

Amazon wants the online sales tax to pass as they are already paying per each state. The 10% savings advantage to the little guy will go away once they have to pay taxes.

Old malls and clothing retailers have been dying for the last decade. It's just now becoming a big enough story that media is picking it up. Those in the industry have know about it for a very long time.

Strip centers in the right locations are doing incredible. The centers are internet resistant type businesses. Workout gym, karate school, restaurant, nail salon, hair salon, doctor's office, dry cleaners,etc. These centers have a natural flow to them.

People can go to doc appointment, get dry cleaning early day. Come back that night for kid's karate, mom goes to nail salon, then pick up dinner headed home. These types of centers for convenience are not going away anytime soon folks.

If you are in a cold belt state or a weak suburban to rural area in a cold belt or warm belt state then you might have over retailed areas they may never bounce back. Those should have never been built to begin with. We have more retail per sq ft than other countries BUT most of the failing per sq ft is in marginal areas as I mentioned above. In the right areas retail is crushing it right now.

Single free standing restaurants are not a given for success. Those have to be highly evaluated for many metrics before purchasing.