You can never predict what will happen, but I plan for the worst and am never surprised...I want to leave every event and say "That was easier than I thought"!

(it's impossible to predict the exact future value of a property and clearly it will depend on when the property is sold, Cap Rate, etc)In summary, my take on the more predictable/likely return is roughly 14%.

It is hard to predict it but if you are trying, why not choose a city that has tons of jobs continuing to move there as well as a 50 year history of sustained growth.

Foldvary predicted the real estate crash in 2006 using this same methodology. 

I am a bit nervous to buy right now since the market has just climbed since 08-09... any insight, advice, predictions, sentiment?

@Kai Van Leuven I don't think we can predict what will cause the failure of any specific investment. 

I predict you would have an easier time pulling out each of your toenails with an old rusted needle nose plier then to rent to this tenant.  

They clearly can predict the future.2.  

The way your market behaves is more predictable than bay area market, our market i extremely sensitive to rate changes esp in higher end market/zip code.

Out of curiosity, have any investors thought seriously about how the population drop predicted by people like Elon Musk will affect the real estate market?