In general I tend to come pretty close to my final listing ARV, though it can be hard to predict based on market trends, or who's appraising your property at the time of sale.

I see most syndicators always project exit cap rates aggressively lower than the going-in cap rates (~2% lower is standard from the financials I'm seeing), which obviously increases the IRR quite a lot.This deal was particularly interesting to me because of 3 things:1) I know the area, as I used to live near Sacramento and I know it's a very interesting market that it's appreciating just by taking in all the incoming population burned out by the bay area pricing, and the employment opportunities are interesting2) The debt terms of this deal seem very good3) The exit cap rate lower than the in cap rate: with this one, I still don't understand if the syndicator is trying to be conservative and predicting a market downturn, or if there is something else I'm not aware of.

My concern though is this:  I think i can pretty closely pin down my expenses for this build and maintenance, but i'm not sure how to accurately predict revenue.  

With Biden taking office, COVID, and multi family investing being at a 'peak' - what are you and your team predicting the next 12 months will be like for multifamily?

@Patrick Senas I do not try to predict the price of RE in the short term as I think it is very difficult to do (and I have purchased twice near market highs so obviously I am not skilled enough to correctly predict short term prices every time).  

Houston historically doesn't crash, it will correct but most are predicting not for another 2 years.

My predictions for the future are based on this knowledge, and of course those predictions are my opinion - that should be clear. however the facts presented are true and real threats to be concerned about. 

I can predict many issues arising amongst tenants in the C class area.

You can't predict the future, or change the present, so I vote just kick back and relax and collect your returns :)

Since the majority of repairs are for tenant damage, it's hard to predict how much that will cost because there is no way to guess what they are likely to destroy--- and they can be very creative about destruction.So I do not get over-extended, I keep my credit in excellent shape in case I ever want to borrow, and I screen like crazy before I let a tenant in.For commercial real estate, there is a reason that is a game for the big boys.