Vacancy and repairs are only theoretical costs until they are realized but need to be factored in anyway - i.e., if the place never goes vacant there's no cost to you.

So glad you've discovered Bigger Pockets early in your real estate investing journey...sounds like you've already developed a great plan to break into real estate in ATL.A few tips that may be helpful to you here on the BP website:You can set up keyword alerts so anytime someone posts about Atlanta or any of the specific neighborhoods you're evaluating, you'll be notified.

Or in other words, 99% of the RE investors are not RE agents :)You don't need the exam to develop credibility.

The math still doesn't work out to favor new construction, so there is obviously other factors I am not considering.

Consider that two of the most important factors in the success of a real estate investment is location and property management.

If they do leave, factor in the cost to remodel/fix/maintain the unit for the new tenant to come in. 

So case law as it has developed has created a scenario where the QI needs to keep your money under their not your control until there is no longer the opportunity to complete an exchange.The first time this happens is at day 46 if you don't turn in a 45 day list. 

It was a good enough deal that I factored in "worse case" scenario eviction costs into my numbers and decided I'd take care of that myself after closing. 

I have interest in Germantown as well, and though I do not have much experience with the immediate area, my investor-minded realtor has recommended staying near Germantown ave on the Mt Airy side of town due to increasing development. 

What factors/metrics do you look at to determine if a market is crashing or shifting?