Assumptions:Sellers numbers are accurate (I know a lot of due diligence would be required if I was actually jumping into the deal)No significant fixing/renovation is neededWill appreciate any feedback!

The Gasoline analogy is not false, it's accurate.

As long as you can accurately estimate the cost to install the hvac and that is factored into the deal I see no reason to pass on the deal if the numbers work.

We've known this would not be a good  long-term investment for us.It seems the first goal would be to obtain an accurate financial picture of their worth and then decide how long they could remain viable sources of income. 

Second, if the numbers you have provided are accurate, then yes, this is a good deal.

So the appraisal came in 12+% lower than the initially agreed upon price (original numbers were cashflow positive ~250/month – assuming my newbie investing numbers are accurate and no typos in the BP calculator).I am anticipating years/decades of working with this company and do not want any part of the turnkey operation harboring negative thoughts.

Your timeline, especially on the first flip, will not be accurate.

Also, I'm not expecting to get all my money back after the refinance but I would like to get some of my initial down payment back.Deal:List Price: $115,000Area: B+ area, nice big schools and high quality tenantsType: 3br/1.5 ba / Twin HomeARV: $140,000 (sold comps from realtor)Estimated Rehab: $20,000 - It's a guess, but I plan to get accurate when walking job with contractorRent: $1400Taxes: 2500 / ($210/month)Buy:80% of ARV - Rehab Costs = Max Price Paid$112,000 - $20,000 = $92,000Conventional Loan = $18,400 down-payment,@ 5% interestClosing Costs = $3,000Rehab: $20,000Rent: $1,400Cash Flow = Rent - Mortgage - Insurance - Taxes - Vacancy(10%) - Maintenance(10%)Cash Flow = 1,400 - 495 - 50 - 210 - 140 - 140 = +365Cash on Cash: 365x12 = $4,380/$41,400(18,400+20,000+3,000)Cash on Cash = 10.5% (initial)Refinance: ARV = $140,000 and refinance into conventional loanReceive 28K back, meaning I'm in for $13,400(41,400 - 28,000)New Cash on Cash Return = $4380/13,400 =32.7%Thoughts on this is that this return is really nice and offers me a lot more profit then typical buy and hold of A+ condition properties.Threats:1.

My girlfriend's friend's husband has been gone for a couple of months due to his gambling addiction and has left her with the kids and the rent.

More accurately, going thru through the listings that are auto-generated.