BRRRR - First Timer, Advice Needed

[Kyle M.]

I'm going to be as detailed as possible as it is my first time using this strategy.  The example below is of an actual deal that I'm looking at.  I want to ensure that I have my ducks in a row before I proceed.  Also, I'm not expecting to get all my money back after the refinance but I would like to get some of my initial down payment back.

Deal:

List Price: $115,000

Area: B+ area, nice big schools and high quality tenants

Type: 3br/1.5 ba / Twin Home

ARV: $140,000 (sold comps from realtor)

Estimated Rehab: $20,000 - It's a guess, but I plan to get accurate when walking job with contractor

Rent: $1400

Taxes: 2500 / ($210/month)

Buy:

80% of ARV - Rehab Costs = Max Price Paid
$112,000 - $20,000 = $92,000
Conventional Loan = $18,400 down-payment,@ 5% interest
Closing Costs = $3,000

Rehab: $20,000

Rent: $1,400

Cash Flow = Rent - Mortgage - Insurance - Taxes - Vacancy(10%) - Maintenance(10%)

Cash Flow = 1,400 - 495 - 50 - 210 - 140 - 140 = +365

Cash on Cash: 365x12 = $4,380/$41,400(18,400+20,000+3,000)

Cash on Cash = 10.5% (initial)

Refinance:

ARV = $140,000 and refinance into conventional loan
Receive 28K back, meaning I'm in for $13,400(41,400 - 28,000)

New Cash on Cash Return = $4380/13,400 =32.7%

Thoughts on this is that this return is really nice and offers me a lot more profit then typical buy and hold of A+ condition properties.

Threats:

1. Don't get the value boost I'm hoping for when re-appraised.

2. Rehab costs running over budget.

3. Unable to refinance after 6 months (I have to make sure my lender will do this).

4. A lot of upfront money (I have private money to fall back on if needed).

5. Unable to negotiate a good price.  What would be your cut-off price of purchase using this example.

Questions:

How would you guys evaluate this deal?  

What are you thoughts are buying at a even higher price such as $105,000?

Any other thoughts on this would be appreciated, I tried to be as detailed as possible so I make sure not to overlook anything.