You do not allow leases to begin or end outside the season because it is too risky and you cannot afford the risk.

We are not worried for our job security, and we could afford the mortgage regardless of the other unit being rented out or not, but our closing costs and down payment would leave us with about 4 months reserve.

It's not a good model unless you are charging enough each time that you can afford to pay back 30% (lets call it) of what you are grossing and at that rate, you're not competitive with the market.

They'll be able to get you pre-approved so you know how much house you can afford.

•Massive unemployment = selling and foreclosure (eventually, not initially)•Increased supply/declining demand = lower prices/buyers' market•Those with capital reserves will buy at significant discounts for cash•Savvy investors without capital will buy on great terms •Retail priced value add/flip properties will have to sell at smaller margins•The paper market and buy and hold investors will be on hold until the general public can afford to make payments•Capital might be sitting on the sideline for a whileWhat does your crystal ball say I'm missing here?

The challenge is that we don't have enough data yet to really look at the numbers and make any meaningful predictions or summations of the effect so far.There will likely be an increase in supply for the coming months in the Phoenix market, as the Covid crisis will undoubtedly push some homeowners in foreclosure, force some AirBnb investors to sell off some properties, and kick the iBuyers out of the market for now and force sellers to sell via traditional means if needed.It may be reasonable to expect a short-term recession (and I mean super short term, as everyone is hoping this will be over in 60-90 days), but it's not reasonable to expect a massive depreciation of home values or another foreclosure crisis like in 2008.Home prices in the Phoenix market have risen consistently since 2013 (like most of the country), but not outside the affordability range of average home buyer with a median home price of $265k or so.If the majority of average buyers can weather the storm with government aid and such, then we should be ok and bounce back fairly quickly once the pandemic subsides. 

The RE market is due for a correction soon, it doesn't always follow the economy and there are always ways to make money in real estate.Two quotes come to mind, Warren Buffett, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." and “Never say you cannot afford something.

Be the one that can afford it, even in weird circumstances.

I can't afford to give a month off.

@Bryan McMoney is 1600/month an affordable rent rate in your market?