So the appraisal came in 12+% lower than the initially agreed upon price (original numbers were cashflow positive ~250/month – assuming my newbie investing numbers are accurate and no typos in the BP calculator).I am anticipating years/decades of working with this company and do not want any part of the turnkey operation harboring negative thoughts.

Your timeline, especially on the first flip, will not be accurate.

Also, I'm not expecting to get all my money back after the refinance but I would like to get some of my initial down payment back.Deal:List Price: $115,000Area: B+ area, nice big schools and high quality tenantsType: 3br/1.5 ba / Twin HomeARV: $140,000 (sold comps from realtor)Estimated Rehab: $20,000 - It's a guess, but I plan to get accurate when walking job with contractorRent: $1400Taxes: 2500 / ($210/month)Buy:80% of ARV - Rehab Costs = Max Price Paid$112,000 - $20,000 = $92,000Conventional Loan = $18,400 down-payment,@ 5% interestClosing Costs = $3,000Rehab: $20,000Rent: $1,400Cash Flow = Rent - Mortgage - Insurance - Taxes - Vacancy(10%) - Maintenance(10%)Cash Flow = 1,400 - 495 - 50 - 210 - 140 - 140 = +365Cash on Cash: 365x12 = $4,380/$41,400(18,400+20,000+3,000)Cash on Cash = 10.5% (initial)Refinance: ARV = $140,000 and refinance into conventional loanReceive 28K back, meaning I'm in for $13,400(41,400 - 28,000)New Cash on Cash Return = $4380/13,400 =32.7%Thoughts on this is that this return is really nice and offers me a lot more profit then typical buy and hold of A+ condition properties.Threats:1.

My girlfriend's friend's husband has been gone for a couple of months due to his gambling addiction and has left her with the kids and the rent.

More accurately, going thru through the listings that are auto-generated.  

How can I verify the rents and expenses they are telling me are honest and accurate?

I've done the appraisals which came back accurate and the inspection and wondering if there is anyway out.

I haven't seen a sellers numbers that I think are truly accurate yet. 

But you factored for all of the customary variables in your analysis so I would count your #s as fairly accurate.

I've read a lot and studied a lot to know that this real estate business is not easy and you can make a lot of mistakes if your numbers are not accurate.