Appreciation is a bit of a gamble, can swing wildly up or down, and doesn't pay off until you sell the property.

If you use $40k to take a trip to Vegas and gamble your money away, then I would go with $300/mo. 

More than likely a potential for more profit, but must put in landscaping and fencing, maybe $40k.If the goal is to make as much money as possible in order to have a big down payment on the future CA build, should we stay where we're at given the capital gains hit, or take the gamble of hoping the other house gets us a bigger profit margin?

It is pure gambling at that point at the cost of your money. 

Should I take this gamble?

Many people purchase the wrong properties and then can't afford repairs, vacancies and they don't have a clue regarding how to manage properties and don't have a clue regarding what to do when the tenant from hell destroys the property and does not pay rent for 6 to 9 months while you are paying the mortgage and an attorney.If you a gambling woman with huge suitcases full of money then jump right in and take your chances not with real estate, but take your chances trying to find an honest and competent person who will guide you in the right direction like you are their mother.

It could appreciate but I consider that gambling.

@Jay C.I would steer clear of crypto and stock market because it’s a big gamble.

So on the one hand, betting only on appreciation is a gamble (and that's why I mentioned that you need to determine whether you can survive a market downturn) but on the other hand, you can use market and economic trends to get a certain "feeling" of where the market will be in the future.

It’s the government’s right to take private property for a public purpose, like widening the street, or building the Barclays center 😀.It’s a gamble to decide if the city will actually decide to use the land.They usually provide a “fair market value” and it’s inevitable with time that the property will get acquired.