It also appears that you could weather a lot of storms because of the cash position you have established and you're obviously making significantly more than you spend.

weather is a bit toasty right now but still a good place to live when all things are considered.

According to forecasts from @RealPage property management, 671,953 apartment units are projected to be completed in 2024 (the highest since 1974).While this is only about a 3.5% increase to overall apartment numbers, this should have an affect on apartment rent growth, or even rent declines in the sector (RealPage).

In this market I would say the number you know is better for forecasting and planning then chancing.

But with mass layoffs at huge companies poping up every week, the fed continuing to raise rates and forecasting more rate raises, and the potential for a large number of people being overleveraged in debt... 

-what's the property's appreciation history, and what's the forecast for future appreciation?

I seek long term hold periods of everything I invest in, and try not to get caught up in the macro economic forecasting that dominates the media.

My biggest hang up at the moment is accurately forecasting occupancy rates during Peak and Off-Peak seasons.

Most people are only insuring because of the lender requirements - mother nature could care less if the property is in a high-risk flood zone or not, or if the lender requires coverage or not if the structure sits in a flood-prone area or we have some horrifying weather event (which we are seeing more and more) the fundamental purpose of any insurance is to have it when and if you need it.

Using a HELOC for buy and hold investments, especially when you don't have breathing room to weather a storm, is not the best next step.