I'll continue to work towards making more accurate estimates.

For example, if you look at Houston, The Woodlands Sugarland Texas the total building permits issued based on annual report was 42673, but if you add up all 12 months from the monthly report the total was 44879.Please note that I used the monthly/annual  reports titled  "New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized Unadjusted Units by Metropolitan Area"  which I got from https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/I just want to make sure my analysis is accurate.

That is an awesome rehab job and great profit, especially for a first deal.How did you go about figuring your ARV and rehab estimate during the buying process, i.e. what was your due diligence process like given that it's your first deal and what gave you certainty that your numbers were accurate?

@Andrew Johnson is pretty accurate in saying that dirt appreciation is limited to the "core" areas...

@Val Jaz If your numbers are accurate, buy it.  

Again, in your calculations above, it doesn't matter, but when you get into more finite calculations, you will want a more accurate picture of what exenses are, and what part the vacancy plays as a deduction from the income.Your PM is low. 

I also wonder how accurate/realistic/predictive the four-phase market cycle model is.

You'll have expenses here and there and it's important to run accurate numbers, but if the pennies are weighing you down, maybe that property isn't quite the right fit for you.

I know the standard procedure is to get your offer accepted and then go about your due diligence, but even after calling around and finding labor/material costs I'm not confident my numbers would be accurate.

Should i schedule a viewing of the place first and go with a contractor so i can get an accurate estimate of the repair cost?