My takeaway was: while the lot market has cooled from the high of the two-year inflated COVID market, it is pretty much the same as previous years.He pointed out that many of the guys predicting gloom and despair of a bear market have no discernable record of real estate investing.I respect Rick and his analysis a lot.

It is not predictable or guaranteed. 

Are your days wide open to accept visitors for events, such as local football games?  

I would classify this type of thing under "Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt" or "FUD" which these days serves more to generate clicks and views than it does to accurately predict the future movements of any market or asset.No matter what happens, people will need a decent, safe place to live.

(When we are wrong...its not a little wrong its usually off by a lot from things we cannot predict.)Using the Normal Distribution (Normal Bell Curve)Normal PERT= (Optimistic Value + Expected Value*4 + Pessimist Value) / 6 = (.8 + 1*4 + 6)/6 = 10.8/6 = Planned Value of 1.8 Weeks*I use this if residual risk is lowNegatively Skewed PERT  = (Optimistic Value + Expected Value*3 + Pessimist Value*2) / 6 = (.8 + 1*3 + 6*2)/6 = 15.8/6 = Planned Value of 2.63*I use this if if the residual risk is mediumVery Negatively Skewed PERT= (Optimistic Value + Expected Value*2 + Pessimist Value*3) / 6= (.8 + 1*2 + 6*3)/6 = 20.8/6= Planned Value of 3.46*I use this if if the residual risk is mediumIn my professional life this approach has served me very well. 

., I am not an economist and I can't predict the future, but I would look at the anticipated federal funds rate increases in 2022 as a starting point.

The airdna predictions in this market are off by a solid 10-20pct.

My concern though is this:  I think i can pretty closely pin down my expenses for this build and maintenance, but i'm not sure how to accurately predict revenue.  

@Patrick Senas I do not try to predict the price of RE in the short term as I think it is very difficult to do (and I have purchased twice near market highs so obviously I am not skilled enough to correctly predict short term prices every time).  

I can't predict market cycles.