Yes I include that in my purchase assumption...if the prop needs 15k work my purchase price gets adjusted up

Use "The Learning Loop"Learn and Practice one new skill, e.g. deal analysis.Have someone else review your analysis and see if they come to the same conclusion, or have recommendations to adjust your calculus.Take time to review your analysis process. 

The house is overall in solid condition, just needs an intense cosmetic rehab with new kitchen and baths. 

HOA covers all ext. maintenance roof, side etc. and landscape / snow, but I will adjust and say $60 monthly for CAPEXCleaning fees, W/S, Gas/Electric for the year will likely be around $3,800 for the year.My all in costs for the year will likely be around $78,000The estimated revenue from Airbnb/Short Term rentals will likely be around $144,000 per year.

I have paid for expensive campaigns before where Facebook pushes your ad in front of people, and that pretty much paid for itself - got a couple bookings and built a following - but it was quite expensive and rather labor intensive.  

And you can structure the loan to be an adjustable rate if you want lower rate & payment now and refinance if rates increase.

If the bathroom has a tub, avoid replacing this if possible as it's quite labor-intensive.

This means doubling the adjusted basis within any 30-month time period.

Adjust based on starting capital and yearly capital allocation.If that number comes out way more aggressive than you expected, then you need to look at maximum leverage, possible value adds, etc.

I have done a lot of research, and I am well aware this path won't be easy, and it will take a lot of adjusting, especially with a kiddo on the way, but I'm determined to earn more for my daughter.