So many people get that equation backward.  

(Happy about that)Typically my losses were "about" equating to my income, minus 2 months where I paid fees for major repairs that I needed to do, and physically cut checks to contractors for more than my income those months.

Seems like you're a sharp guy and it's awesome to see you're already devouring some books.If you haven't already, check out this great list of The 21 Best Real Estate Investing Books EverThe cool thing about building your real estate portfolio is, you typically won't have enemy civilizations trying to take you out of the equation!

That is below a 1% monthly rent to price ratio which will equate to negative cash flow.

From the commercial side, shutting down a profitable business to open a brand new one adds some uncertainty to the equation. 

So there is another part to this equation. 

This is how I handle both sides of the equation.

.- Vacancy, Concessions and Rent Loss- Capital Expenses (CapEx)So, it's more than just "expenses" (by the accounting definition of the term), but doesn't include any mortgage/debt service.Basically, the 50% refers to your Net Operating Income (NOI) if you want to put in those terms.Assuming your 5% for "reserves" equates to your long-term capital budget, then it looks like you're pretty close with your assessment, though I don't see vacancy in your numbers...

Ideally I could stay close to where I am now as I have two children plus this area of KC is very desirable and would draw a quality tenant and equate to appreciation in my investment.

The "we'll lend up to 70% of the ARV" refers to only a portion of the equation.