I was preapproved for one last week on a HomePath property, but decided to shift to conventional financing to strengthen my offer.

-since I've got the economic background I really track the real estate market and now expecting the titanic shift for a long-term downtrend meaning that ARV should be on the conservative side, but unfortunately, the current market condition is not favorable to me to start here.What was wrong with my strategy?

When I used to do DTS we rarely had our callers have higher than a 8% answer rate in a shift, usually closer to 2-5%. 

That shifts a lot of liability onto them, and can relieve you from licensing and SEC regs.Raising money for your own deals can be considered a security, thus requiring a securities exemption, or license.  

And that shifts depending on “what’s hot” at the moment.  

Keep in mind the interest rate is shifting, and the market continues (at least for now) to appreciate. 

If we assume we're looking at recession over the next year or two, the first thing to typically dry up is peoples discretionary budget so trips to Disney get postponed or cancelled altogether.Therefore, from a planning perspective, if the STR market dries up or slows WAY down like it is in other markets, it would seem to be to be an easier thing to potentially shift to long term rental for a year or two if you were renting out a 4 or 5 bed home, versus trying to LTR in a 10+ bed home.I'm just looking at this from a strategic perspective and trying to play this as smart as I can.

Startups paid lucrative stock options to their employees that all imploded when the market shifted.

Suddenly, my problem has shifted to not enough capital to capture it all.Lesson: stick you your guns.

@Alexander ParuninYou have yet to make the shift to understanding that all these people are your business associates: code enforcement, local magistrates, the IRS, the police.If you're going to go into real estate, go in it to win it, don't go in it to wing it.