Again, in your calculations above, it doesn't matter, but when you get into more finite calculations, you will want a more accurate picture of what exenses are, and what part the vacancy plays as a deduction from the income.Your PM is low. 

Walking the property will give you a better idea of location and current condition of the house, which helps provide a more accurate ARV and offer price. 

The lien will be easier for them to execute on an investment property.From a legal standpoint, this is the most accurate answer.

For example, if you look at Houston, The Woodlands Sugarland Texas the total building permits issued based on annual report was 42673, but if you add up all 12 months from the monthly report the total was 44879.Please note that I used the monthly/annual  reports titled  "New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized Unadjusted Units by Metropolitan Area"  which I got from https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/I just want to make sure my analysis is accurate.

That is an awesome rehab job and great profit, especially for a first deal.How did you go about figuring your ARV and rehab estimate during the buying process, i.e. what was your due diligence process like given that it's your first deal and what gave you certainty that your numbers were accurate?

I'd say more often than not they are not accurate enough to use for any kind of analysis. 

The dust analogy is also not quite accurate for all line items.

I personally would prefer something a bit more specific like taking account of all the big ticket items that will need to be replaced and using their expected life and expected replacement cost  to get a solid number that, imo, has a better chance of being accurate than a flat percentage.

However, the mistake I see a lot of investors make and one that I am trying to avoid is the mistake of confusing investing with gambling.

TimTim, I'm not saying you can't do it this way (I'm sure you can), but saying you need to do it that way is not accurate.