Nobody can predict exactly where the market will go, though it's clear that it will trend down at some point in the near future (we're already several years past the average length of the business cycle in this cycle).That said, if you factor a drop in values, a drop in occupancy rates and a drop in market rents into your equations, there's no reason you can't still be successful as long as you buy with those risks in mind.

If the outlook is as good as you say, rents should trend up and you should be able to turn that low cash flow into a real winner.

Both are good cash flow markets and have good economic and demographic trends.

I do get bookings a year out for premium events but for the most part most of my bookings are in the 3 month to 6 month range.Homeaway / VRBO as you know has some great analytic tools for see upcoming trends in increased demand and now even projected demand.Most of my income comes from my long term rentals so I don't worry too much about my VRBO booking.

You have to underwrite a property for sound historical data  of performance trends over decades and not in a few year vacuum where buyers feel multifamily is a can't lose proposition.

2) Ok, so sometimes a person can make a mistake and it turns out to change a trend, i.e. - the current trend of businessmen in suits wearing pants that look uncomfortably tight and show a lot of sock between the tops of their shoes and bottom of their pants.

What metrics should we be looking at and then what should the trends be.

@Steve Sherman 4 units is a small sample size to use to see any trends.

That will really help to get a picture of the numbers for the last few years, and what a reasonable projection for the upcoming year looks like based on historical trends. 

Understand the market trend as well.