I've ramped up efforts to buy more lots, but it's blood sport to get the right dirt, at the right place, at the right price. 

@J Scott   Oh J your mean... between Aaron kicking out tenants for sport and this whats a poor wood be investor to think.I know as a RE broker I just flat would not work with investors that came form the guru seminars ...

It always seems like every poster who says investing for appreciation is gambling is willing to bet on depreciation.

@Raden Mantuano not only are you having to bank on appreciation, you are gambling on where interest rates are going to be in 9 years.

Or is it a gamble and the original owner could come back and reclaim the home?

Sell to my long-term tenant for $400,000, and invest proceeds in stock market, while avoiding new roof expense in a year or two and taking a gamble on new tenant when current one leaves if I don't sell him the house.2. 

(Sports-domestic & international rugby, mostly).

And remember Real Estate Investing is a full contact sport. 

Other investors gambled, overpaid, negatively cash flowed, and got wiped out.

Hollywood stars, politicians and sports figures are self-important windbags.